SPX and COMPQ: Something I've Never Said in 15+ Years of Updates

I've been publishing these updates here, at Minyanville, at Investing.com, and other places for more than 15 years now -- which means literally thousands of updates (2,300+, to be exact) -- and in all that time, I have never once said the following:  

Holy cow, this market just sucks.*  

The problem isn't that I can't find a pattern here -- the problem is that I can find 20 patterns.  So I'll tell you what looks most reasonable to me, but my confidence is low and if something entirely different shows up, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised.

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below yesterday's low.

Probably the two bigger picture counts that seem the most rational are the b-wave I've drawn on COMPQ, or some kind of bull nest.

But I've always done my best to call like I see it and not give readers a false sense of confidence when that's unwarranted (imo, a certain breed of analyst projects unjustified confidence because most people don't tolerate uncertainty very well, not because it's the best approach) -- and the reality is: there are 50 other micro patterns that could all fit, and since we're sixty-four months into a trading range now (might not be that many, I'd have to look at a calendar), almost nothing is reliable or high-probability anymore, within this range.

So here's COMPQ again:

 

Here's SPX:

We can keep watching the trend lines on the SPX chart, those have proven useful.  And, I mean, COMPQ has been doing exactly what it's supposed to for the B-wave count, so maybe I'm just being too nitpicky with the charts... but be careful out there.  Trade safe. 

*Not that I've never expressed frustration with a market in 15+ years, just I've never said it like that.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

Last update, we were watching the overhead trendlines to see if bulls could manage a breakout, but SPX couldn't hold above them:

I haven't updated COMPQ in a while, because there's literally nothing to add -- on October 5, I said it was "getting to be about time for COMPQ to decide" if it wanted to go with the B-wave, and it reversed shortly thereafter.  On October 9, I noted that they were "keeping it interesting" -- and they've made it even more interesting since, with a more substantial reversal off the black B label.  

But because every single low (going all the way back to June on SPX) looks like a b-wave at some degree, there are no guarantees as to which one they're aiming to resolve.  The most bearish one is the one mentioned above (7200s for SPX), which aligns with the one in black on the chart below.  But I can't promise they aren't aiming to resolve one of the higher ones:

Not much else to add beyond that.  Trading ranges are rarely kind to rigid thinking.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: More Fun Than a Bucket of Monkeys

Lots has happened since last update -- and yet, nothing has happened: the market is still range-bound, and is still in basically the same place.

[Note: typo on chart -- "immediate move into the bear count" should be "immediate move into the bull count"]

The trend line chart continues to prove valuable, with two tags of green since last update, and the market reacted to both:

In conclusion, we do seem to have some promising levels to watch, though the more times a market moves through a range, the less reliable individual price levels become.  I do want to reiterate something, because anytime there's a near-term bear count, a handful of readers start thinking that means I'm predicting a new bear market -- but it does not mean that unless I explicitly say that. ABCs are corrections against the prevailing, not new bear markets.  Anytime you see a count terminate in the "C" label, that means it's not expected to be permanent.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: A Bit of an Understatement

Last update noted:  "SPX rallied up to red, which may act as resistance."
(note that was referring to what is the second chart in today's update, not the chart immediately below)

And that turned out to be a bit of an understatement.

SPX has now formed three waves down, so in the event of the bull count, it has enough waves for a complete correction.  The bear count needs at least one more low toward one of the iterations of the black c-wave:

The chart below remains included because it contains some worthwhile trendlines (such as the red one that just rejected the market):

Not much else to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Preferred Path Followed; Diagonal Invalidates

Since last update, the preferred path was the winner directionally.  This is because -- particularly at times like this, when the market has been range-bound for a long time -- I'm sometimes forced to attempt to construct the larger counts in a sort of layered approach.  Meaning I look first at what's most likely on the one-minute level, then say "okay, if that happens, then what are the possible patterns at the next level up?"

In this case, the one-minute read was correct, but the jury's still out on the larger read -- though we know it's not the diagonal as it was drawn:

On the next chart, SPX rallied up to red, which may act as resistance.  

Nothing else to add.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Change

Futures are indicating a gap down of sufficient size to break through the rising gray trendline (which I didn't think was a meaningful trendline in the first place, hence why I drew it in gray) on the chart below.  That's at least in the right direction for the blue path.

It is worth mentioning that the lower blue trendline on the above chart exists mainly in my imagination; it's not perfectly derived from anything on the price charts -- other than the potential macro pattern.

I did add a notation about the possible bull count on the chart below.  I'm discounting that count because the lows look unresolved -- but stranger things have happened, so it's not an impossible count by any means:

Not much else to add at this stage.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: A Very Detailed SPX Chart

Today is Indigenous People of Columbus, Ohio Day (or something like that), where we either celebrate or lament the discovery of America, depending on our political affiliations.  What that means, in practical terms, is that the Federal Reserve is closed but the stock market is open.  And that means I still have to do an update, but with fewer jokes about the Fed.

In honor of those brave people of Ohio, I have spent much time preparing a carefully-detailed near-term chart for readers:

The chart annotation says:

There are two main near-term options here:  

1. The diagonal option is shown in blue and fits well with the apparent 3-wave natures of waves i and iii (in gray is an alternate version of the diagonal). 

2. The b-wave low option is in black and would be expected to retest/break 7616 first, potentially creating a range bound market for several weeks.  It does have some potential for ~7500 as well (lower odds but can`t be ruled out).  

3. The rising red line shows where the diagonal invalidates.  

4. The b-wave option is more immediately bearish but then bullish.  The diagonal option is, NEAR-TERM, more bullish -- but ultimately more bearish.

***

But let's round this out with another chart:

And now, with this additional chart above, we can add (5 and 6) to the list:

5. The diagonal would typically be expected to at least tag horizontal blue, but would likely reach the falling blue line.

6.  Because diagonals are terminal patterns, it would not "need" to stop at those lines, though, and could fall toward ~7237 or below.

It might take a minute to sort through all that, but hopefully it's helpful for readers.  Trade safe.