SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Right on Target and the Next Key Levels

Last update noted that a bounce wouldn't be out of the question, and that's what we've had since.  Most interesting is how the bounce ran right to where I suspected it would -- INDU shows this most clearly.

INDU also most clearly shows the potential problems for bears, were the bounce to continue, so let's start here:

COMPQ ran to its red horizontal (its first upside target), then got rejected like a creeper on prom night:

COMPQ near-term -- note the thick black line:

And finally, SPX, which also tagged first resistance:

In conclusion, this is the first real test bears have faced in a while.  They probably need to hold the market below yesterday's peak, or things get a little sketchy for them.  If these noted key levels hold -- IF and only IF -- then all's well for new lows.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ, INDU: Market Finally Does a Thing

The market has finally done a thing again, as both COMPQ and SPX have finally at least peeked above their respective crash channels.

COMPQ:

COMPQ long-term -- back above the long-term trend line, for now:

INDU:

NYA:

In conclusion, you may have picked up that the recurring theme I'm stressing to bears now is "don't get complacent."  It's very easy to feel invincible after the market has gone your way for a while.  But even if this is a fourth wave correction to the decline, fourth waves can get messy and complicated.  It's also not impossible for the decline to be OVER.  That seems like an underdog right at this moment -- but "underdog" and "impossible!" are very different things, and it is by no means impossible.  Trade safe.

p.s.- I've started aggregating a few enduring pieces, as well as publishing some new work, at Substack.  The latest piece is titled "AI and Robots Won't Take All the Jobs -- Here's Why."  If you enjoy the piece or my work in general, please "like and subscribe!"  Many thanks.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU, NYA: All Diagonals Go to Heaven

Since last update, the market has continued floundering around like an electrocuted mackerel, trending sideways down, but unable to bounce.  Let's start off with INDU, which has broken down from an apparent double-top:

NYA also suggests that prices would normally be expected to run lower still.  The diagonal I suggested back in November (when it was still forming) ended up being the real deal:

COMPQ is below its major uptrend line:

COMPQ has exceeded its targets, but if NYA and INDU run lower, COMPQ will too:

And the SPX diagonal I called out right before the top has also ended up being real, despite failing to overthrow its upper trend line:

In conclusion, one would think we'd get a bounce somewhere in here, but both COMPQ and SPX are still within their crash channels -- and as I noted a week ago, the "first step for bulls" is to break out of that.  Bigger picture, NYA and INDU both suggest that even if we bounce, the decline is probably not over, with lower prices likely to follow any bounces.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: Getting Closer

Since last update, the market has continued to drop like a water balloon, and SPX has captured and exceeded both its common first targets:

COMPQ is looking shakier, though not QUITE to its key overlap yet:

And INDU's whipsaw of blue was indeed a serious warning sign:

In conclusion and in short:  Bulls are running out of real estate rapidly.  If they can't pull out of this tailspin soon, then it will become increasingly likely that a major bear market just began.  We'll give them a little more breathing room, but right now things are looking pretty awful for them.  In the event this was the start of that major bear, we could ultimately retrace most of the rally that began in 2022... and if this is the start of a secular bear (a distinct possibility, given the wave positions in the big picture), we might not see current levels again for many years.  Just something to keep in the back of one's mind.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Changing the Clocks is an Obvious Practical Joke

Just a short update today because I forgot the mainland was going to do their Daylight Wasting Time time change.  Hawaii doesn't observe DST, so this change means the market shifts from opening at 4:30 a.m. to opening at 3:30 a.m. here.  In other words:  Normally, the market doesn't open for another half an hour or so.

Anyway, hence the short (and slightly late) update, starting with COMPQ:

And ending (yes, already!) with SPX:

Luckily, there's not a lot to add to Friday's update anyway.  But my apologies for the misstep, and Wednesday I'll be back on track.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: The Bad News Bears

Since last update, SPX made a slight new low, while COMPQ and INDU retested their lows.  Before we look at those charts, though, here's a "let's keep it simple" chart.  SPX is currently in a crash channel:

COMPQ tested, but is still holding above, its first key overlap:

And INDU is probably the clearest indicator that the current drop is only 3 waves down (so far):

Probably the most noteworthy thing to come out of all of this is that while SPX made a new low, it appears to have done so in only three waves (coming down from Tuesday's 5865 high).  This implies that in the event it bounces directly (first target 5875-5904), then that will leave a b-wave low that would need to be resolved with another new low.  If it doesn't bounce directly, then it's likely going to need to run south of 5600 in order to create the requisite 5-waves down from 5865.

In other words, it appears more likely than not that bears still have the ball for now, one way or the other -- though a b-wave low and bounce would give bulls a short-term reprieve.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU Updates: Bulls on Fumes

Last update again called attention to INDU's long-term blue trend line as the zone bulls would need to reclaim to keep their hopes alive for the near term, but that trend line proved too much for them and acted as resistance:

COMPQ has now effectively completed its blue "more bearish" projection from January:

Big picture, bulls are trying (again) to stage a rally, this time at COMPQ's first meaningful overlap.  It's almost like the market knows where these levels are (wink):

SPX has now captured its first diagonal target:

In conclusion, COMPQ and SPX have now both captured their "more bearish" targets.  This leaves the two options discussed in brief on the SPX chart.  The most bearish option now shifts from "decent correction" to "major bear market may have just started."  Due to the lack of sustained trade beneath any of the key overlaps (and a few other things), I'm going to hold off on at making that call just yet -- but just know that it's actually on the table in a very real way now, for the first time in years.  We'll see how the market handles things from here.  Trade safe.