SPX, COMPQ, INDU: As the Repos Turn

Since last update, SPX has captured the lower bound of its upside target zone (6074-6128):

COMPQ has continued tracking the path I outlined on January 29:

And INDU made it back to black (cue AC/DC) and bumped its head on it -- for the moment.

And here's an interesting chart.  Overnight repos are (nearly) back down to levels we haven't seen in a few years:

In conclusion, there's not a lot to add about any of this -- the market's doing what was expected but still hasn't answered the bigger question.  If bears still have anything left, then they should show up soon. 

As a side note, I'll be publishing very detailed results of my investigations into the potential for "AI consciousness," almost certainly later today (probably within a few hours of the open), so anyone who has an interest in AI, consciousness (human or otherwise), or even general epistemology, might want to check back later today.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: Lucky 13

Since last update, COMPQ bounced right where expected, while SPX ran just a hair lower before bouncing.  I noted a few times that SPX would likely follow the same general path as COMPQ, so the blue path is holding up well enough.  I've noted the divergence point on the chart.

SPX did a quick little whipsaw of blue before bouncing:

And INDU bounced right at its major long-term trend line.  This helps highlight why it's a good idea to watch multiple markets at the same time.  If one was just watching SPX, one would not have seen this.

This INDU chart is also approaching its landmark 13-month anniversary:

In conclusion, bulls have held things where they needed to in order to maximize their chances, but we'll see what the market has in mind here.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Call It a Hit

In Friday's update, I wrote:

SPX is starting to get that "bear diagonal or bull nest" look to it, so it may be getting ready to move more decisively quite soon.

And I think we'll be able to call that a hit after today's open (assuming the drop in futures holds, which it should).  

For the past few weeks, we've discussed the possibility of a large expanded flat, that (were it to arrive) would likely take SPX back toward the low 5700s.  Today will be the first real test of that, with futures down significantly in the pre-market.  

COMPQ continues to illustrate the rough expectation of the expanded flat for both COMPQ and SPX, and the next test for COMPQ will be the red line.  I've drawn the blue path with a big bounce from red, but that's not required.  A small bounce or no bounce is an option, too, unless COMPQ is following the black path instead of the blue path (then it's an even bigger bounce!).  A sustained breakdown at red would tend to suggest blue, while a breakdown of the January low would all but confirm it (though of course, the flat could always get MORE complex and bounce again near the retest of that low temporarily, so be aware of that).

On SPX, the blue line is the next real test.

In conclusion, the market looks set to gap down significantly.  How it responds to the support lines on COMPQ and SPX will likely set the tone for the coming week.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ... and Trouble on the Far Horizon for NVDA?

Since last update, we not only had a Fed day, but people have figured out how to build full model LLMs without getting heavily invested into GPUs (potential trouble brewing on the far horizon for NVDA), and yet the market has gone basically nowhere.

SPX is starting to get that "bear diagonal or bull nest" look to it, so it may be getting ready to move more decisively quite soon:

COMPQ still has both options open (as does SPX, of course):

In conclusion, nothing has happened since last update, so there's just nothing really to add.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Fed Day

Today is a Fed Day, and charting took longer than expected for some reason, so I'll let the charts and the Fed do the talking today.

First up is COMPQ, for a wider view:

SPX so far bounced right at its blue trend line:

In conclusion, both options remain open for now, but COMPQ does tend to suggest that if the recent low breaks, the move from COMPQ's high at 20.1K to the next low will need to be a five wave decline (either as a C-wave or worse).  We'll see if the market still cares what the Fed has to say in the meantime.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates: Keeping It Interesting

As of right now, futures are indicating a gap down open, which is going to leave the larger flat we've discussed over the past couple weeks very much on the table.  The first zone to watch is blue:

INDU did not make it nearly as far back up as SPX and is being rejected (as of right now) at its black trend line:

In conclusion, the next zone to watch in SPX is the blue trend line.  If that breaks, then we could well be looking at the aforementioned complex flat, which has a textbook target of 5690-5710 (though, being a corrective pattern, always reserves its right to fall short of that target).  If that happens, it would continue to imply at least one more high, though there are patterns that could be complete at the most recent ATH -- so we'll at least keep that possibility on the back burner, depending on what happens next.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: And the Beat Goes On

Since last update, COMPQ captured its 20k+ target:

INDU rallied up to tag the "next test" black trend line:

And SPX made a new all-time high:

Of note, this most recent leg of the rally (going back several months) seems to be being driven largely by retail investors -- perhaps historically so:

While retail is generally not known as "smart money," let's hope this time is different.

In conclusion, SPX does still have the option for a complex flat that runs back down to the recent lows, but again, right now that only exists as "an option" in theory, with no impulsive declines to make it more than that.  We'll see if the market reacts with multiple indices at or near resistance zones, or if it just keeps chugging higher.  Trade safe.