SPX and COMPQ: Fed Day

Today is a Fed Day, and charting took longer than expected for some reason, so I'll let the charts and the Fed do the talking today.

First up is COMPQ, for a wider view:

SPX so far bounced right at its blue trend line:

In conclusion, both options remain open for now, but COMPQ does tend to suggest that if the recent low breaks, the move from COMPQ's high at 20.1K to the next low will need to be a five wave decline (either as a C-wave or worse).  We'll see if the market still cares what the Fed has to say in the meantime.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates: Keeping It Interesting

As of right now, futures are indicating a gap down open, which is going to leave the larger flat we've discussed over the past couple weeks very much on the table.  The first zone to watch is blue:

INDU did not make it nearly as far back up as SPX and is being rejected (as of right now) at its black trend line:

In conclusion, the next zone to watch in SPX is the blue trend line.  If that breaks, then we could well be looking at the aforementioned complex flat, which has a textbook target of 5690-5710 (though, being a corrective pattern, always reserves its right to fall short of that target).  If that happens, it would continue to imply at least one more high, though there are patterns that could be complete at the most recent ATH -- so we'll at least keep that possibility on the back burner, depending on what happens next.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: And the Beat Goes On

Since last update, COMPQ captured its 20k+ target:

INDU rallied up to tag the "next test" black trend line:

And SPX made a new all-time high:

Of note, this most recent leg of the rally (going back several months) seems to be being driven largely by retail investors -- perhaps historically so:

While retail is generally not known as "smart money," let's hope this time is different.

In conclusion, SPX does still have the option for a complex flat that runs back down to the recent lows, but again, right now that only exists as "an option" in theory, with no impulsive declines to make it more than that.  We'll see if the market reacts with multiple indices at or near resistance zones, or if it just keeps chugging higher.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA, INDU: Upside Targets (will be) Captured

Last update opined:

[B\ulls seem to have the near-term ball with the previously discussed C-wave rally possibly unfolding now. Whether they have enough to get over the all-time high, or if this is just another retest of it, remains to be seen.

And SPX looks poised to open near the upper bounds of the C-wave target zone:

COMPQ also appears it will reach its "more likely 20K+" target zone:

NYA continues to follow the "or?" path laid out way back on December 18:

Finally, INDU has not only retested the blue line as expected a week ago, but has clawed back over it:

In conclusion, today will retest the zone near the all-time-high.  This move seems to have a lot of momentum, so we'll see if bears can mount a defense or not.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA, INDU: Almost Six of One, Half a Dozen of the Udder

Last update referred back to Monday's update: 

The most recent decline has been a little slow (relative to its position in the structure), so that does leave open the potential of the larger b-wave and bounce discussed on the chart. But it's not an assurance of such, because sometimes things like a "wave i of 3" can start a little slow. 

Since then, SPX briefly broke down, but it didn't stick... which leaves open both potentials discussed on Monday (wave i of 3, with this bounce being ii of 3 -- or the larger b-wave, with this bounce being larger c).

And since THEN, SPX has added some confidence to the idea of this bounce being larger c... or even something a bit more bullish (more on that in the final two charts):

The next hurdle for INDU is the black line, which it continues to look likely to test:

Bigger picture, NYA still illustrates the more bullish outcome, originally discussed on December 18:

And COMPQ illustrates how, at least in COMPQ (though this also holds true for SPX), it's not much of a difference, in terms of points, from the C-wave to the "new high":

In conclusion, bulls seem to have the near-term ball with the previously discussed C-wave rally possibly unfolding now.  Whether they have enough to get over the all-time high, or if this is just another retest of it, remains to be seen.  Of course, let's not get so complacent that we ignore the resistance zones along the way, as the market could always offer unpleasant surprises for bulls there.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update noted:  

The most recent decline has been a little slow (relative to its position in the structure), so that does leave open the potential of the larger b-wave and bounce discussed on the chart. But it's not an assurance of such, because sometimes things like a "wave i of 3" can start a little slow.

Since then, SPX briefly broke down, but it didn't stick... which leaves open both potentials discussed on Monday (wave i of 3, with this bounce being ii of 3 -- or the larger b-wave, with this bounce being larger c):

It will also be interesting to see if INDU gets back to its long-term trend line and whether that serves as resistance if it does:

In conclusion, the two main options presented in the prior update both remain viable, for now, so we'll see which one the market chooses.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ Updates

Since last update, SPX, COMPQ, and INDU have all broken their prior swing lows.  This confirms the "possible b-wave low" discussed on January 6:

The most recent decline has been a little slow (relative to its position in the structure), so that does leave open the potential of the larger b-wave and bounce discussed on the chart.  But it's not an assurance of such, because sometimes things like a "wave i of 3" can start a little slow.

I've added some potential targets to the COMPQ chart, if things break here:

And INDU's pivot zone seems to be working well enough.  The question here, as with the others (though this chart illustrates it more graphically) is whether the market will want another stab at the pivot line first or not:

In conclusion, bears continue to signal that they retain the upper hand for now, at least in the bigger picture.  The main question is whether the market will choose a delay tactic or not.  Trade safe.