SPX, NYA: Have a Nice Day

Since last update, SPX confirmed my read that at least one more small 4/5 unwind higher was needed:

Due to expanded flat potential back at the 2nd wave, it's possible that no more 4/5s are still needed, but because the latter portion of the 2nd wave looks like a three (it would need to be a five were it an expanded flat), I'm presently leaning toward the idea that there will be another.

NYA discusses the two most obvious bigger picture options (added the red annotation today):

Beyond that, still not much to add to the deeper dive updates of the past few weeks, except to note that I just learned that I missed the opportunity (a couple weeks ago) to call out November 19, which is apparently "Have a Bad Day Day."  I'll probably forget by this time next year, so, having just learned this useless fact, I felt obligated to share it immediately.  Anyway!  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Three Down Confirmed

SPX finally made a new all-time high, which confirms that the decline was just three waves down (as suspected on Nov. 18) and not an impulsive turn lower:

I've published a lot of long-term charts over the past week or so, so there really isn't anything to add on that front, but here's the SPX extended fifth chart again anyway:

In conclusion, until there's an impulsive turn lower, there's really not much else to do other than keep tracking the uptrend.  Trade safe.

Oh, p.s.- I typically take the Friday after Thanksgiving off, since it's a short session and it gives me a bit more uninterrupted time with my family over the holiday without "thinking market thoughts," so I'll likely do that again.  Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NYA: One Option

The market barely moved on Friday, leaving us in the same position, but I've added a new chart to the mix, via NYA:

The pattern above is interesting, because it would line up well with the old long-term extended fifth target for SPX.  Of course, keep in mind that if we get there, the fifth could always choose to tack on another extension...

INDU continues to bounce from its long-term trend line:

COMPQ has been stuck in neutral:

Finally, correctly identifying the "three down" inflection zone in SPX a week ago turned out to be quite helpful:

In conclusion, bulls have held all the zones I called out last week, so unless something breaks, there's still nothing for bears to write home about yet.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: "Interesting Test" Holding So Far

On Monday, I noted that SPX appeared to be only three waves down to 5853, and that low has held all week, leaving the decline still just three waves down.

On Wednesday, I noted that INDU was facing an interesting test of the blue breakout line, and so far, it's bounced pretty strongly from that support zone:

COMPQ has remained range bound, bouncing in between resistance and support lines:

In conclusion, still no change from Monday's conclusion, which, in short, was:

Thus far, we don't have an impulse down, though, either -- so I don't presently have any hard targets until the market either proves it wants to change trend or shows it wants to keep the decline as a three-wave correction.

We'll see if anything new happens today or not.  Trade safe. 

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: An Interesting Test

There have been some interesting developments in the charts, so let's get right to them, starting with INDU:

Next is the near-term SPX:

And finally, COMPQ, which has bounced up to the next potential resistance line:

Last update ended with the following:

In conclusion, the markets captured the "one more wave up" that I was leaning toward before the election, so there aren't any more "obvious" waves up still needed, and if the pattern wanted to reverse from here, it's free to do so. Thus far, we don't have an impulse down, though, either -- so I don't presently have any hard targets until the market either proves it wants to change trend or shows it wants to keep the decline as a three-wave correction. I'll be watching closely how this develops over the next few sessions, though.

No change to that yet, so we'll see how it shakes out from here.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA: Hanging in the Balance

Since last update, SPX captured both its downside targets:

COMPQ was rejected soundly at its resistance zone:

And NYA continues to show the most bearish long-term scenario:

In conclusion, the markets captured the "one more wave up" that I was leaning toward before the election, so there aren't any more "obvious" waves up still needed, and if the pattern wanted to reverse from here, it's free to do so.  Thus far, we don't have an impulse down, though, either -- so I don't presently have any hard targets until the market either proves it wants to change trend or shows it wants to keep the decline as a three-wave correction.  I'll be watching closely how this develops over the next few sessions, though.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: The "Chart-Only" Portion of Today's Update

The more interesting portion of today's update is broken-out into a standalone piece.  See: We Talked About This. We Never Thought It Would Happen.

So the chart portion of today's update (this) will be short.  First is SPX:

Next is COMPQ, with a reminder to reread the black annotation of 11/5.  COMPQ is obviously still well below its hard cap, so option 1 remains very much on the table:

Not much else to add beyond these two updates.  Trade safe.