INDU and COMPQ: "No SPX for You!"

As those of you who own tape measures have no doubt noticed, the market has gone nowhere since Oct. 14, choosing instead to grind sideways.  Which means there's still nothing to add, really.  Which means:

So today will simply focus on a zone below the market and a zone above the market (2nd chart):

COMPQ's relevant zone is above the market:

That's it, those are the next two zones to watch, as they have been for the last couple weeks.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: A Look at the Long Term

The last few updates have talked about SPX likely still needing to unwind higher and blah blah blah but let's talk about something interesting today.  Over the weekend, a reader requested I update the long-term SPX chart from March 11, and by golly, I thought that was a good idea.

On that chart, I had mentioned (in March) it appeared we might be in an extended fifth higher, whose textbook target was 6380-6450.  And while that seemed kind of ludicrous at the time, SPX isn't so far off from those levels now.

So what would happen if we were in that count?  Well, we'd head higher into the election (as I mentioned several updates ago), maybe beyond, then we'd peak and head back to ~5120.  Then we'd retest the high.  Then we'd drop like a rock to ~3810.

So that would be interesting and fun.  But let's see how things go in the meantime, as COMPQ is still a little bit of a thorn in bulls' paws:

In conclusion, not much to add to the near-term discussions from the past couple weeks, but it's probably a good time to return focus to the long-term count and keep an eye on how that develops.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Something Interesting to Watch

Last update suggested the decline SPX was experiencing was likely a 4th wave, and the new high since then has confirmed that.  It probably needs at least one more 4/5 unwind:

COMPQ is still lagging.  An interesting scenario would be if SPX managed to unwind another 4/5 while COMPQ still failed to make a new high.  Something like that might put bulls at least on guard, were it to occur.  On the flip side, if COMPQ were to clear its prior high convincingly, then there could be weeks of upside still remaining -- so how it behaves here is of interest to both bulls and bears.

In conclusion, SPX performed as expected, so not much else new to add.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Test Time

Last update noted that INDU had finally cleared its long-term rising resistance line, which is bullish as long as bulls are able to hold above that zone:

SPX could be in one of its presumed fourth waves, but if it overlaps the black horizontal KO, then that would be a warning sign for bulls:

Interestingly, the outlier chart is still an outlier, as COMPQ has so far failed to clear its prior high.  Getting above that high would give bulls more breathing room, because below it (where we are now) still leaves open options for a much deeper decline, potentially comparable to the July/August decline:

In conclusion, this is bulls' first test since the breakout, and the zones to watch seem reasonably clear, so we'll see how they handle it.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Finally

For the past few weeks, we've been watching INDU's long-term trend line and waiting for the market to announce its next intentions -- which it now seems to have done.  Let's look at the charts and see what we've got now, starting with INDU itself:

SPX captured its next target, and its pattern suggests that there are probably some 4/5 unwinds needed, which could play out over the coming weeks:

COMPQ, on the other hand, is a bit of an outlier and -- so far -- hasn't played along with the breakouts in SPX and INDU:

In conclusion, COMPQ is playing it close to the vest, but INDU has finally broken out above its long-term resistance zone, so as long as that holds, then bulls probably have the ball for a bit, perhaps continuing into the election or thereabouts.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update noted:

[I]n the event SPX can sustain a breakout over its ATH, then that would put some near-term bull options in play, including the option that everything since the "three down" low was a bull nest. For this to be the case, bulls would want to see a breakout on increasing momentum.

That looked to be the case early on Wednesday, but the rally has since stalled, so bulls will need to keep pushing over this hump to keep the bull nest hopes alive.  The near-term SPX chart discusses the zone they need to hold and the next classic upside target:

INDU is one of the reasons things aren't a done deal for bulls yet, even over the near term  INDU hasn't exceeded its prior high and is still at its major resistance zone:

Not much else to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Since last update, INDU has moved a bit higher within its noise zone:

SPX has made slightly better progress, now threatening to test its all time high:

The prior ATH is, of course, a resistance zone, but in the event SPX can sustain a breakout over its ATH, then that would put some near-term bull options in play, including the option that everything since the "three down" low was a bull nest.  For this to be the case, bulls would want to see a breakout on increasing momentum.  If SPX broke its prior high then stalled immediately, that would put options such as a larger expanded flat (which would be expected back below red, then back up to a new ATH), or an ending diagonal, in play.

Other than that, not much new to report since the last few updates.  Trade safe.