SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Finally

For the past few weeks, we've been watching INDU's long-term trend line and waiting for the market to announce its next intentions -- which it now seems to have done.  Let's look at the charts and see what we've got now, starting with INDU itself:

SPX captured its next target, and its pattern suggests that there are probably some 4/5 unwinds needed, which could play out over the coming weeks:

COMPQ, on the other hand, is a bit of an outlier and -- so far -- hasn't played along with the breakouts in SPX and INDU:

In conclusion, COMPQ is playing it close to the vest, but INDU has finally broken out above its long-term resistance zone, so as long as that holds, then bulls probably have the ball for a bit, perhaps continuing into the election or thereabouts.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update noted:

[I]n the event SPX can sustain a breakout over its ATH, then that would put some near-term bull options in play, including the option that everything since the "three down" low was a bull nest. For this to be the case, bulls would want to see a breakout on increasing momentum.

That looked to be the case early on Wednesday, but the rally has since stalled, so bulls will need to keep pushing over this hump to keep the bull nest hopes alive.  The near-term SPX chart discusses the zone they need to hold and the next classic upside target:

INDU is one of the reasons things aren't a done deal for bulls yet, even over the near term  INDU hasn't exceeded its prior high and is still at its major resistance zone:

Not much else to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Since last update, INDU has moved a bit higher within its noise zone:

SPX has made slightly better progress, now threatening to test its all time high:

The prior ATH is, of course, a resistance zone, but in the event SPX can sustain a breakout over its ATH, then that would put some near-term bull options in play, including the option that everything since the "three down" low was a bull nest.  For this to be the case, bulls would want to see a breakout on increasing momentum.  If SPX broke its prior high then stalled immediately, that would put options such as a larger expanded flat (which would be expected back below red, then back up to a new ATH), or an ending diagonal, in play.

Other than that, not much new to report since the last few updates.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Everyone's Favorite Market

Friday's market didn't do anything to change anything, so... no change from the past few updates.

INDU first:

SPX:

Of minor note, SPX appears to be three waves down followed by three waves up.  As of this second, it hasn't overlapped the start of the prior wave down, so that means if it were to break the red line directly, there would be an option for it to be a nested bear wave.  If it goes on to form another small 3-down, 3-up while the price range contracts, then we could be looking at a larger triangle continuation pattern.  If it instead were to go on to make a new ATH directly, then neither of those are relevant.  Not much else to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

It's been a long-standing tradition that whenever the update falls on October the 4th, I include the word "the" somewhere in the update, so I'll do my best to honor that tradition again today.

Since last update, the market has basically just burned time going sideways, in an attempt to annoy everyone.  While this doesn't give us much information on its next move, it does give us a fairly clear support zone to work with heading forward:

INDU is in a similar position -- but to be fair, we'd already pretty much worked out that zone previously, plus a hair, this just tends to confirm it:

INDU's big picture chart still shows the zone for bulls to beat convincingly:

In conclusion, not much else to add beyond that.  Trade safe.  

The.

SPX and INDU: Target Captured

Last update observed that INDU appeared to have formed a micro impulse down and projected a decline to ~42K in INDU, which has since happened:

SPX declined as well and is in a similar position:

Long-term, INDU has so far whipsawed the breakout line:

In conclusion, if bears can keep pushing lower and form a larger impulsive decline along the way, then that could bode for a larger top at the recent all-time high.  Of course, there's still work to do to get there, but this would be a nice place for it, since almost no one was expecting that possibility.  We'll see how it plays.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, INDU: A Thing Has Occurred

Since last update, INDU finally broke above its major trend resistance, but it looks like it may whipsaw (I call both false breakouts and false breakdowns "whipsaws."  I realize some people use different terms depending on direction, but I don't care.).  Here's the short-term chart to explain why:

The tricky thing is that on the long-term chart, it appears INDU may still be above the breakout line, but the resolution on these very long-term charts always makes attempting to narrow things "down to the penny" a bit sketchy:

NYA's chart is a bit higher resolution and NYA does look like it's still above its line, so we'll see if that apparent micro impulse (in the first INDU chart) does its job:

Finally, SPX is just a mess of chop at all the relevant time frames, but if INDU's micro impulse down holds, then SPX will likely follow suit:

In conclusion, INDU appears that it may whipsaw its breakout -- but if it doesn't and instead goes on to run higher again, then bears should be extremely cautious for the moment.  Trade safe.