SPX, NYA, INDU: A Thing Has Occurred

Since last update, INDU finally broke above its major trend resistance, but it looks like it may whipsaw (I call both false breakouts and false breakdowns "whipsaws."  I realize some people use different terms depending on direction, but I don't care.).  Here's the short-term chart to explain why:

The tricky thing is that on the long-term chart, it appears INDU may still be above the breakout line, but the resolution on these very long-term charts always makes attempting to narrow things "down to the penny" a bit sketchy:

NYA's chart is a bit higher resolution and NYA does look like it's still above its line, so we'll see if that apparent micro impulse (in the first INDU chart) does its job:

Finally, SPX is just a mess of chop at all the relevant time frames, but if INDU's micro impulse down holds, then SPX will likely follow suit:

In conclusion, INDU appears that it may whipsaw its breakout -- but if it doesn't and instead goes on to run higher again, then bears should be extremely cautious for the moment.  Trade safe.

INDU and NYA: Any Title You Want

Still not much to add.  INDU is still backing and filling near its inflection zone.  I like this chart in the current environment because it provides a clear visual reference for trend resistance.  It's not unusual to see a market bounce along near a trend line (even bouncing higher) before reversing, so it provides a clearer visual guide to the inflection zone -- but it also gives fair warning to bear in the event INDU breaks and holds above that zone, as that would suggest a new burst of momentum higher.

NYA is in a similar position, but the trend line shown on NYA's chart isn't as meaningful as INDU (due to it being a shorter time frame):

In conclusion, while SPX ran a bit beyond its upside target from a month ago, that target is not the end-all to the current inflection zone, so moving a little beyond it is of minimal significance.  INDU is probably a better guide at the moment, due to its rising trend line better capturing the dynamics.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Nothing to add to the past couple updates, except to note that SPX made a new high, confirming the read that it had only formed three waves down and that north of the blue line would be trouble for bears.  I can't find the live chart to update, so I'll just reprint that chart briefly.  More than anything, this serves as the 8,347th reminder for "why I like to await an impulsive decline before getting too bearish."

SPX is still hovering near its first inflection zone:

As is INDU:

So not much to add here, other than to note that awaiting an impulsive decline is still a good idea, as it's as yet unclear whether the market is ready to start topping yet or not.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Following up on the prior update, the market has reacted to its inflection zone, but has not yet formed an impulsive decline, which means (as of this exact moment, anyway) bulls could still recover and make another run into the inflection zone.  The near-term levels are fairly clear, at least in terms of the high probability reads (there are always weird outliers where, for example, SPX could break above blue and then collapse, those are just lower probability).

INDU probably remains the clearest chart at the larger time frames:

In conclusion, while the market has reacted to its upside inflection zone, nothing even vaguely conclusive has yet happened, so there's not much else to add.  Trade safe.

INDU and SPX: August Target Captured

So the Fed went ahead and cut rates by 50 basis points.  As mentioned last update, the last two times they did this after a hike cycle were 2008 and 2001, and we all know what happened after that, so this is not particularly encouraging for bulls.  We're left to conclude that the Fed thinks the economy is slowing way too fast (potentially already in a recession) and that they need to play serious catch-up.  I've heard another theory floated that they cut 50 bps because the election is coming, but that can't be it, because we all know the Fed is a completely independent and politically neutral part... (goes into fit of coughing).  

Pardon me, I forgot what we were talking about.  So let's get right into the charts!  Starting with SPX, which captured its August target:

INDU also captured its trendline target:

In conclusion, the market has reached resistance and an inflection zone.  This doesn't preclude further sideways-up action, but bulls will need to power through this level convincingly to generate new momentum to achieve anything beyond that.  Things could reverse from this zone.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU Updates: 50 bps Cut from the Fed Would Not Be Bullish, Historically

SPX and INDU finally made new all-time highs, so let's get right into the charts to examine the implications, starting with the near-term INDU chart:

INDU's long-term chart shows overhead resistance not far away:

SPX seems to have squeaked out a new high, which is all it needed, but ideally it would look better if it could run up into the target zone from August 19 (which, incidentally, would probably line up pretty well with INDU's overhead trend line):

And of course, today is a Fed Day.  Or a "Fedday" if you hate the Fed.  Bulls are hoping for a 50 bps cut, but Lord only know why.  50 bps cuts for the first cut after a rate hike cycle are not typically bullish -- at least, not over the next 4 years, anyway.  (This is because the larger cut implies the Fed realizes it overshot and is now rushing to catch up to the looming recession.)

Incidentally, I'm going to call it now, so there's no question later:  The next President will inherit a recession.

In conclusion, the double "only three down so far" calls (from early August and then again for the last smaller decline) have both proved out.  Bigger picture, the market is getting into a major inflection zone, so let's see how it reacts.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Well, most of us made it past Friday the 13th without getting attacked by men in hockey masks, though it seems former President Trump had another close call.  Considering that prior to July 13, America hadn't seen an assassination attempt on a President or former President for 43 years, it's pretty noteworthy that there have been two attempts on Trump in as many months.  Let's hope people calm down.

The market has run back up to its prior resistance zone:

INDU is in a similar spot:

Not much else to add to recent updates.  We'll see if bears offer any pushback here or not.  Trade safe.