INDU and SPX: August Target Captured

So the Fed went ahead and cut rates by 50 basis points.  As mentioned last update, the last two times they did this after a hike cycle were 2008 and 2001, and we all know what happened after that, so this is not particularly encouraging for bulls.  We're left to conclude that the Fed thinks the economy is slowing way too fast (potentially already in a recession) and that they need to play serious catch-up.  I've heard another theory floated that they cut 50 bps because the election is coming, but that can't be it, because we all know the Fed is a completely independent and politically neutral part... (goes into fit of coughing).  

Pardon me, I forgot what we were talking about.  So let's get right into the charts!  Starting with SPX, which captured its August target:

INDU also captured its trendline target:

In conclusion, the market has reached resistance and an inflection zone.  This doesn't preclude further sideways-up action, but bulls will need to power through this level convincingly to generate new momentum to achieve anything beyond that.  Things could reverse from this zone.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU Updates: 50 bps Cut from the Fed Would Not Be Bullish, Historically

SPX and INDU finally made new all-time highs, so let's get right into the charts to examine the implications, starting with the near-term INDU chart:

INDU's long-term chart shows overhead resistance not far away:

SPX seems to have squeaked out a new high, which is all it needed, but ideally it would look better if it could run up into the target zone from August 19 (which, incidentally, would probably line up pretty well with INDU's overhead trend line):

And of course, today is a Fed Day.  Or a "Fedday" if you hate the Fed.  Bulls are hoping for a 50 bps cut, but Lord only know why.  50 bps cuts for the first cut after a rate hike cycle are not typically bullish -- at least, not over the next 4 years, anyway.  (This is because the larger cut implies the Fed realizes it overshot and is now rushing to catch up to the looming recession.)

Incidentally, I'm going to call it now, so there's no question later:  The next President will inherit a recession.

In conclusion, the double "only three down so far" calls (from early August and then again for the last smaller decline) have both proved out.  Bigger picture, the market is getting into a major inflection zone, so let's see how it reacts.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Well, most of us made it past Friday the 13th without getting attacked by men in hockey masks, though it seems former President Trump had another close call.  Considering that prior to July 13, America hadn't seen an assassination attempt on a President or former President for 43 years, it's pretty noteworthy that there have been two attempts on Trump in as many months.  Let's hope people calm down.

The market has run back up to its prior resistance zone:

INDU is in a similar spot:

Not much else to add to recent updates.  We'll see if bears offer any pushback here or not.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Friday the 13th

As the title implies, today is... Friday the 18th?  According to the predictive text function:

So never mind.  That wasn't what I was going to say, but I always believe predictive text, so I guess it was a false alarm anyway.  Whew, that was a close one!  But this means we're free to get right into the charts!

First up is COMPQ, which held its key trend line and bounced, so nothing new to add:

Next is INDU, which captured its 2nd downside target zone and bounced:

Finally, SPX, which held its key level and bounced, then captured (and since exceeded) both its upside targets.

Hopefully all those levels and targets were helpful to readers.  Going forward, as we can see, there are two viable counts in SPX (for now) and they're diametrically opposed -- which means it may be best to watch the next key levels (blue 3 on the upside, ~5483 on the downside).  We can also see that if bulls exceed the prior all-time high, that doesn't necessarily mean a lot for them, because that could well complete blue 5 and end up going nowhere.  Bulls would need to hope for an extended fifth to keep things running (over the near-term, anyway) after a new ATH.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

No real change from last update, but I have sketched-up some potential near-term upside targets for SPX:

COMPQ probably still best illustrates the zone bulls need to continue holding:

Not much else to add.  Over the years, I've commented a number of times when the update falls on September 11, to the point that I feel like anything I try to add here today would feel contrived and trite, so I won't add any commentary beyond what I've already written in the past -- but I likewise did not want the day to pass without any acknowledgement.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Dueling Markets

In the prior update, a hypothetical guy with a gun forced me to give a prediction, so my reply was: "I'd probably lean toward saying it looks slightly more likely that it may need more downside to form any sort of complete wave."

And that turned out to be a hit.  Now we have two markets trying to make our lives difficult, so let's get right to it.  First is INDU:

Dueling with INDU is SPX:

And the tie-breaker may be COMPQ, and what it does with the blue trend line:

In conclusion, INDU appears to be 3-waves down SO FAR, while SPX might be 5-waves down, though the razor-thin margin of the prior high vs. the ATH means it might also be 3-down so far.  Some part of me wants to just flat out declare the bull market as over -- but another part of me wants to caveat that heavily because there is no technical confirmation of that yet, and it's entirely possible we've only just entered the topping "process," which could take months.  And I'd also note that we're in the ballpark of a downside inflection point, given that INDU and SPX could both be completed waves to the downside (plus/minus) and COMPQ just tagged a major support zone -- so if it's going to head back up, it could do so from here.  COMPQ may provide the next big picture clues.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Put the Weapon Down, Son

Since last update, SPX rallied back into the zone of the blue resistance line and was rejected.  After that, it went on to form something that's best described as opaque garbage.  The annotation below explains the conundrum:

INDU briefly broke its support line, but looks like it's going to whipsaw that directly:

In conclusion, there's not a lot of clarity in these charts, but if I had a gun to my head and had to say something, I'd probably lean toward saying it looks slightly more likely that it may need more downside to form any sort of complete wave.  But that's really only because some hypothetical person is holding a gun to my head.  If I hadn't invented that person, I might not say anything other than "wait and see," so don't hold me to it, I'm under hypothetical duress here!  Have a great weekend and trade safe.