SPX and INDU Updates

Well, most of us made it past Friday the 13th without getting attacked by men in hockey masks, though it seems former President Trump had another close call.  Considering that prior to July 13, America hadn't seen an assassination attempt on a President or former President for 43 years, it's pretty noteworthy that there have been two attempts on Trump in as many months.  Let's hope people calm down.

The market has run back up to its prior resistance zone:

INDU is in a similar spot:

Not much else to add to recent updates.  We'll see if bears offer any pushback here or not.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Friday the 13th

As the title implies, today is... Friday the 18th?  According to the predictive text function:

So never mind.  That wasn't what I was going to say, but I always believe predictive text, so I guess it was a false alarm anyway.  Whew, that was a close one!  But this means we're free to get right into the charts!

First up is COMPQ, which held its key trend line and bounced, so nothing new to add:

Next is INDU, which captured its 2nd downside target zone and bounced:

Finally, SPX, which held its key level and bounced, then captured (and since exceeded) both its upside targets.

Hopefully all those levels and targets were helpful to readers.  Going forward, as we can see, there are two viable counts in SPX (for now) and they're diametrically opposed -- which means it may be best to watch the next key levels (blue 3 on the upside, ~5483 on the downside).  We can also see that if bulls exceed the prior all-time high, that doesn't necessarily mean a lot for them, because that could well complete blue 5 and end up going nowhere.  Bulls would need to hope for an extended fifth to keep things running (over the near-term, anyway) after a new ATH.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

No real change from last update, but I have sketched-up some potential near-term upside targets for SPX:

COMPQ probably still best illustrates the zone bulls need to continue holding:

Not much else to add.  Over the years, I've commented a number of times when the update falls on September 11, to the point that I feel like anything I try to add here today would feel contrived and trite, so I won't add any commentary beyond what I've already written in the past -- but I likewise did not want the day to pass without any acknowledgement.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Dueling Markets

In the prior update, a hypothetical guy with a gun forced me to give a prediction, so my reply was: "I'd probably lean toward saying it looks slightly more likely that it may need more downside to form any sort of complete wave."

And that turned out to be a hit.  Now we have two markets trying to make our lives difficult, so let's get right to it.  First is INDU:

Dueling with INDU is SPX:

And the tie-breaker may be COMPQ, and what it does with the blue trend line:

In conclusion, INDU appears to be 3-waves down SO FAR, while SPX might be 5-waves down, though the razor-thin margin of the prior high vs. the ATH means it might also be 3-down so far.  Some part of me wants to just flat out declare the bull market as over -- but another part of me wants to caveat that heavily because there is no technical confirmation of that yet, and it's entirely possible we've only just entered the topping "process," which could take months.  And I'd also note that we're in the ballpark of a downside inflection point, given that INDU and SPX could both be completed waves to the downside (plus/minus) and COMPQ just tagged a major support zone -- so if it's going to head back up, it could do so from here.  COMPQ may provide the next big picture clues.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Put the Weapon Down, Son

Since last update, SPX rallied back into the zone of the blue resistance line and was rejected.  After that, it went on to form something that's best described as opaque garbage.  The annotation below explains the conundrum:

INDU briefly broke its support line, but looks like it's going to whipsaw that directly:

In conclusion, there's not a lot of clarity in these charts, but if I had a gun to my head and had to say something, I'd probably lean toward saying it looks slightly more likely that it may need more downside to form any sort of complete wave.  But that's really only because some hypothetical person is holding a gun to my head.  If I hadn't invented that person, I might not say anything other than "wait and see," so don't hold me to it, I'm under hypothetical duress here!  Have a great weekend and trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Inflection Zone Acts as Resistance on First Test

Last update noted that we were getting into an inflection zone, and on Tuesday, the market put an exclamation point on that.

Let's look at the charts to see if bears can continue celebrating, or if they need to tread cautiously for the near-term, starting with INDU:

Next up is SPX:

So, as we can see on the near-term charts, things aren't locked down for bears just yet.  SPX is only three waves down (at present) and INDU has only retested its prior breakout, which has held (again: so far).  Since we can only trade what we see, what we see is a market that's been rejected at a potentially major inflection zone, but has yet to indicate whether it's going to make another run back up into that zone.

Bigger picture, we see the nature of the current inflection zone clearly -- but we need to keep in mind that big inflection zones have big ranges, too, so there's plenty of room for INDU to run up to new highs again and still be within the inflection zone.

In conclusion, bears had a fun day yesterday, but they haven't yet proven they're ready to take over (since they've only formed three waves down so far) and thus we can't yet rule out another run up.  We'll see how things develop for the remainder of the week.  Trade safe.

INDU Update: SPX? We Don't Need No Stinkin' SPX

Last update projected that INDU would need at least one more fourth wave correction, followed by another wave up to new all-time highs, and that has since happened:

As the chart notes, it's getting trickier now, which stinks because I won't be able to devote as much time to goofy jokes, since the market will become less predictable and there will now be fewer updates that say "no real change" and that allow me to reprint the same charts but with smiley-face stickers on them.

It's also getting tricky at long-term scale now, as the market appears to finally be approaching an inflection point that has significant and real MAJOR top potential:

In conclusion, the odds probably slightly favor one more 4/5 unwind still left, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that, especially since we're getting into the ballpark of a MAJOR (yes, I'm capitalizing it again) inflection zone.  Don't forget Monday is Labor Day, so the market is closed because it's disruptive to have traders going into labor right in the middle of the exchange floor.  Trade safe.