SPX and INDU: From the Dark Depths of Jackson Hole

On Friday, Powell wandered out to the microphone from the dark underground depths of Jackson Hole, appearing drunk, grabbed the mic forcefully and muttered something about "too many lost socks" before passing out, still holding the microphone and drooling.  

The market wasn't sure what to make of this, so it traded sideways for the day.

Which means, you guessed it, nothing has really changed from the updates of the past few weeks.  Although, INDU has now made a new high to match NYA:

SPX appears poised to resolve its previously-discussed-fourth-wave to the upside (which is/was the expected outcome of a fourth wave down, of course, as it's followed by a fifth wave up):

In conclusion, not much else to add other than -- assuming we're in a simple straightforward impulse rally -- a reminder it still looks like SPX and INDU will need at least one or two more 4/5 unwinds higher before completing the wave up from the 3/c low.

SPX Update: Time for The BLS to Remove The "L"

So, the big news since last update is that the BLS (Bureau of Laughable Stupidity) "overestimated" the yearly jobs number by 818,000 jobs.  So instead of yearly job creation being 2.9 million, it was 2.1 million -- an overestimation of nearly 40%, which would get the BLS fired from the private sector.  This is the biggest yearly revision to the NFP number since the Great Recession, a time when everything was in complete chaos.

Many pundits believe this will give Jerome "the Gnome" Powell the reasons he needs to justify a discussion about cutting interest rates during his Jack's Son Whole speech today (10 a.m. sharp, coat and tie encouraged, but cut-off jeans and t-shirts okay).  The only question pundits have is whether he'll decide to cut rates by 25 or 50 bps next month.

Chart-wise, still not a lot to add, but bears are back into a price zone where they do have an option (classic 3-3-5 flats of the "non-expanded" variety need to retrace 90% before they can work, so this wasn't an option at lower prices), even if it appears to be the underdog at the moment:

Not much else to add today, Powell's speech will probably set the tone for today's session.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, INDU Updates

Since last update, NYA made a new high:

This has implications for INDU, since it's almost a clone of the same pattern.

And, of course, all of that implies SPX will probably follow along with the crowd:

In conclusion, at some point, we do need to see a larger fourth wave develop, to pair with the 1s and 2s of the bull nest noted in INDU (so a micro fourth wave within the rally wave since the swing low, then leading to a micro fifth wave for that same rally wave), and it's at least possible that the first wave down (a/1) for that occurred during yesterday's session, though I have little confidence in this market at the moment.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: There Are No Aphids in Foxholes

Ah yes, another day of saying basically the same thing I said in the prior update, which was basically the same thing as the prior update, which was basically the same thing as the prior update...

Supposedly, an infinite regress is impossible, but I'm starting to wonder.

Anyway, since there's not much else to say, I did add an initial bull target to the chart, in the event we're witnessing a straightforward impulsive rally wave unfold from the most recent low:

I've added nothing to the INDU chart, because there's nothing to add:

In conclusion, there are no new conclusions to be drawn that would add anything substantive to the prior conclusions.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Now Is the Time...

...for All Good Men to Come to the Aid of Their Country.  And it probably is, seeing as we just had a candidate for President (yes, of America, not of some mosquito-ridden third-world country) propose price controls(!) as a "solution" to government-caused inflation, for crying out loud, but that's a whole 'nother discussion.

...for bears to put up or step aside.  This was actually my original thought with the "Now Is the Time" title, but you know how word association works, so by the time I started typing, my mind had already moved on to the infamous sentence from old typewriting tests.  Which ultimately led us here.  And thus the Great Circle of Life is complete.

Anyway, we'll see why (why bears need to put up or step aside, that is, since we got a little sidetracked there) on the following chart:

SPX has continued rallying and is now close to overlapping the presumed 2/B high, so here again, the implication is that bears need to make a stand fairly soon:

Now, were SPX to overlap 2/b, it doesn't mean there are no other bear options afterwards, it just means there are no easily-tradeable bear options afterwards.  Although, frankly, I've felt that way anyway about the market ever since SPX reached its downside target earlier this month, which is part of the reason I didn't rush to stick any new targets or bear labels on the chart.

In conclusion, if bears are still in the game, they probably need to turn it lower directly.  If they can't, then it's on to more and more highs forever and ever -- or at least until the price controls kick in and destroy our economy once and for all.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Market Does a Thing

Since last update, SPX did overlap the first key upside level noted on August 7:

COMPQ has also continued its bounce:

In conclusion, there's good reason that I stopped providing targets after SPX captured its fourth target (the downside 5100-25), and that's because, as I mentioned, I didn't have any.  The 3/c inflection zone was big enough that I felt it unwise to try to see around that corner without enough data to do so accurately -- and I don't regret that decision.  As it sits now, if bears are going to make a stand, they probably need to do so fairly directly.  Were the markets to sustain trade below their 3/c lows now, that could suggest a big bear nest.  That said, as I've warned since we captured that final target, it's entirely possible that was it for the downside.  We'll see what the next few sessions bring.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: An Option Among Options

Since Wednesday, the market has continued to grind along resentfully, perhaps angered that Jerome "Colon" Powell still exists.  Accordingly, there's still not much to add since Wednesday, but I did notice one option for the near-term, as shown on the SPX chart below:

I can't stress enough (that's kind of a strange turn of phrase -- of course, no one wants any more stress than they already have!) that the pattern above is just one of the common outcomes here -- there are plenty of other options, too, so don't go betting the farm on it.

Bigger picture, nothing has changed lately:

In conclusion, as I've noted before, bears do still need to claim the 3/c low to confirm a change of trend at the next higher degree, so still nothing new to add.  Trade safe.