SPX and INDU: Now Is the Time...

...for All Good Men to Come to the Aid of Their Country.  And it probably is, seeing as we just had a candidate for President (yes, of America, not of some mosquito-ridden third-world country) propose price controls(!) as a "solution" to government-caused inflation, for crying out loud, but that's a whole 'nother discussion.

...for bears to put up or step aside.  This was actually my original thought with the "Now Is the Time" title, but you know how word association works, so by the time I started typing, my mind had already moved on to the infamous sentence from old typewriting tests.  Which ultimately led us here.  And thus the Great Circle of Life is complete.

Anyway, we'll see why (why bears need to put up or step aside, that is, since we got a little sidetracked there) on the following chart:

SPX has continued rallying and is now close to overlapping the presumed 2/B high, so here again, the implication is that bears need to make a stand fairly soon:

Now, were SPX to overlap 2/b, it doesn't mean there are no other bear options afterwards, it just means there are no easily-tradeable bear options afterwards.  Although, frankly, I've felt that way anyway about the market ever since SPX reached its downside target earlier this month, which is part of the reason I didn't rush to stick any new targets or bear labels on the chart.

In conclusion, if bears are still in the game, they probably need to turn it lower directly.  If they can't, then it's on to more and more highs forever and ever -- or at least until the price controls kick in and destroy our economy once and for all.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Market Does a Thing

Since last update, SPX did overlap the first key upside level noted on August 7:

COMPQ has also continued its bounce:

In conclusion, there's good reason that I stopped providing targets after SPX captured its fourth target (the downside 5100-25), and that's because, as I mentioned, I didn't have any.  The 3/c inflection zone was big enough that I felt it unwise to try to see around that corner without enough data to do so accurately -- and I don't regret that decision.  As it sits now, if bears are going to make a stand, they probably need to do so fairly directly.  Were the markets to sustain trade below their 3/c lows now, that could suggest a big bear nest.  That said, as I've warned since we captured that final target, it's entirely possible that was it for the downside.  We'll see what the next few sessions bring.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: An Option Among Options

Since Wednesday, the market has continued to grind along resentfully, perhaps angered that Jerome "Colon" Powell still exists.  Accordingly, there's still not much to add since Wednesday, but I did notice one option for the near-term, as shown on the SPX chart below:

I can't stress enough (that's kind of a strange turn of phrase -- of course, no one wants any more stress than they already have!) that the pattern above is just one of the common outcomes here -- there are plenty of other options, too, so don't go betting the farm on it.

Bigger picture, nothing has changed lately:

In conclusion, as I've noted before, bears do still need to claim the 3/c low to confirm a change of trend at the next higher degree, so still nothing new to add.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: One Update Turns into Two

Ah yes, it's Wednesday again, the ever popular "Day with a Silent D."  Wait a second.  (Checks calendar.)  Apparently, two entire sessions have passed since last update, which means today is actually Friday -- though you'd never know it from the price action.  The market has barely budged since last update, and long-time readers know what THAT means.  It means I have to try to kill time with paragraphs like this one so that I don't feel like I'm being lazy when I say, "no change."

But...

No change.  Obviously.  

So here are Wednesday's charts again, in lieu of the oft-requested cute bunny pictures.

First up is SPX:

Ha, gotcha!  Lord only knows why Dall-E can't spell "photorealistic" or why it even chose to print that below "SPX," which was the only thing I actually asked for, but no man knows the mind of an AI.  Anyway, a forum member suggested that Bunnies might be our new good luck charms, so I figured: Why not?

Here are the real SPX charts, unchanged from Wednesday:

And finally, COMPQ, changed only in that it's trying to edge the annotations off the chart, and I refuse to recenter them because it will entail entirely redoing them:

Nothing to add beyond that.  Trade safe and have a great weekend.

SPX, COMPQ Updates

Chartwork took longer than expected, so I don't have much time for chit-chat here and we'll just let the charts do the talking:

SPX did end up capturing its most recent T2:

And I finally updated the annoying COMPQ chart:

Not much else to add beyond that -- the level bears need, and thus the level bulls need to hold, is clear.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Make it Four

On Friday, July 26, I wrote:

[I]f bears can sustain a breakdown at yesterday's low, things are going to start to look bleaker for bulls. Worth noting that yesterday's bounce sure felt like a short-covering rally.

I think we can now say with complete confidence that the noted bounce was indeed a short-covering rally, since futures are set to open with SPX down 53,000 points.  Futures actually captured both of my downside target zones in the overnight:

Bigger picture, here's where we are currently:

COMPQ also confirmed my read of it from July 31:

In conclusion, it remains entirely possible that we're witnessing the death of the bull market, but there are still some technical hurdles bears need to claim to add confidence to that idea.  Keeping both sides of the trade in mind for now:  The most bullish case would be that the current decline is wave C of an ABC, in which case the market could bottom directly.  Trade safe.

SPX Target Capture Trifecta

SPX captured its target zone for the third time in a row, then reversed (for the third time):

As noted on the chart, bulls do still have a "gotcha" option, where they could revisit the current 2/B high before declining again, but presuming SPX breaks 5390, then that would most likely resolve bearishly.  If it holds 5390, then anything is possible.  Not much else to add beyond that, but do continue to keep in mind that big picture, we were looking for a possible MAJOR top when the market topped, so the most bearish long-term potential is that we just ended the bull market.  Trade safe.