Commentary and chart analysis featuring Elliott Wave Theory, classic TA, and frequent doses of sarcasm.
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Monday, August 12, 2024
SPX Update: An Option Among Options
Friday, August 9, 2024
SPX and COMPQ: One Update Turns into Two
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
SPX, COMPQ Updates
Monday, August 5, 2024
SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Make it Four
On Friday, July 26, I wrote:
[I]f bears can sustain a breakdown at yesterday's low, things are going to start to look bleaker for bulls. Worth noting that yesterday's bounce sure felt like a short-covering rally.
I think we can now say with complete confidence that the noted bounce was indeed a short-covering rally, since futures are set to open with SPX down 53,000 points. Futures actually captured both of my downside target zones in the overnight:
Bigger picture, here's where we are currently:
COMPQ also confirmed my read of it from July 31:
In conclusion, it remains entirely possible that we're witnessing the death of the bull market, but there are still some technical hurdles bears need to claim to add confidence to that idea. Keeping both sides of the trade in mind for now: The most bullish case would be that the current decline is wave C of an ABC, in which case the market could bottom directly. Trade safe.
Friday, August 2, 2024
SPX Target Capture Trifecta
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Fed Day and Targets
Today is, of course, a Fed day, which means that precisely at high noon (plus two hours), Jerome Powell will emerge from his pod and fight a dramatic Duel to the Death with the financial press corps, armed with only his notes and a Browning .50 caliber heavy machine gun. (He keeps that hidden in the podium most of the time.) Everyone is expecting the Fed to keep rates steady -- but they're also expecting the Fed to provide lots of Happy Talk about how things are going swimmingly and thus hint at rate cuts coming down the line.
If this Happy Talk doesn't happen, then keep an eye out for the .50 cal.
Chart-wise, it's still a case where nothing of any technical significance has happened since Friday's update, but don't worry, I'm not going to publish more bunny pictures today. That was a one-time thing (unless I decide to use that joke again in the future, in which case... anyway, no promises). Despite SPX remaining range bound, I am able to provide some potential target zones (one of them being the same zone I mentioned on the forum on Monday):
Keep in mind that in the event SPX is done correcting, then Target 3 would be "a retest of the all-time highs, plus/minus."
INDU is still not entirely playing along with the bear ideas, which continues to make me feel like at least some degree of bear caution is called for:
Of note, COMPQ did make a slight new low yesterday, which makes it look a bit more like maybe it will want another wave down after this bounce, so it and INDU still feel like they may not be on the exact same page, with SPX somewhere in the middle. Not much to add beyond that. Trade safe.
Monday, July 29, 2024
INDU and Bunny Updates
Literally nothing happened in SPX since last update.
Which means nothing has changed -- so today, we should just enjoy these cute bunny pictures:
As we can see from these images, there's really no reason to stress about doing an update with nothing to add today. We should just reread Friday's update if we have any questions.
The only thing worth mentioning today that's different from Friday would be INDU:
In conclusion, we can see that, although there appear to be four bunnies in the second picture, all four look pretty much the same, so we can't be 100% certain it's not one bunny in four different poses. Also, INDU managed to get back above blue resistance, at least for now, which gives bulls some options if it sticks. No other change beyond that.