SPX Update: An Option Among Options

Since Wednesday, the market has continued to grind along resentfully, perhaps angered that Jerome "Colon" Powell still exists.  Accordingly, there's still not much to add since Wednesday, but I did notice one option for the near-term, as shown on the SPX chart below:

I can't stress enough (that's kind of a strange turn of phrase -- of course, no one wants any more stress than they already have!) that the pattern above is just one of the common outcomes here -- there are plenty of other options, too, so don't go betting the farm on it.

Bigger picture, nothing has changed lately:

In conclusion, as I've noted before, bears do still need to claim the 3/c low to confirm a change of trend at the next higher degree, so still nothing new to add.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: One Update Turns into Two

Ah yes, it's Wednesday again, the ever popular "Day with a Silent D."  Wait a second.  (Checks calendar.)  Apparently, two entire sessions have passed since last update, which means today is actually Friday -- though you'd never know it from the price action.  The market has barely budged since last update, and long-time readers know what THAT means.  It means I have to try to kill time with paragraphs like this one so that I don't feel like I'm being lazy when I say, "no change."

But...

No change.  Obviously.  

So here are Wednesday's charts again, in lieu of the oft-requested cute bunny pictures.

First up is SPX:

Ha, gotcha!  Lord only knows why Dall-E can't spell "photorealistic" or why it even chose to print that below "SPX," which was the only thing I actually asked for, but no man knows the mind of an AI.  Anyway, a forum member suggested that Bunnies might be our new good luck charms, so I figured: Why not?

Here are the real SPX charts, unchanged from Wednesday:

And finally, COMPQ, changed only in that it's trying to edge the annotations off the chart, and I refuse to recenter them because it will entail entirely redoing them:

Nothing to add beyond that.  Trade safe and have a great weekend.

SPX, COMPQ Updates

Chartwork took longer than expected, so I don't have much time for chit-chat here and we'll just let the charts do the talking:

SPX did end up capturing its most recent T2:

And I finally updated the annoying COMPQ chart:

Not much else to add beyond that -- the level bears need, and thus the level bulls need to hold, is clear.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Make it Four

On Friday, July 26, I wrote:

[I]f bears can sustain a breakdown at yesterday's low, things are going to start to look bleaker for bulls. Worth noting that yesterday's bounce sure felt like a short-covering rally.

I think we can now say with complete confidence that the noted bounce was indeed a short-covering rally, since futures are set to open with SPX down 53,000 points.  Futures actually captured both of my downside target zones in the overnight:

Bigger picture, here's where we are currently:

COMPQ also confirmed my read of it from July 31:

In conclusion, it remains entirely possible that we're witnessing the death of the bull market, but there are still some technical hurdles bears need to claim to add confidence to that idea.  Keeping both sides of the trade in mind for now:  The most bullish case would be that the current decline is wave C of an ABC, in which case the market could bottom directly.  Trade safe.

SPX Target Capture Trifecta

SPX captured its target zone for the third time in a row, then reversed (for the third time):

As noted on the chart, bulls do still have a "gotcha" option, where they could revisit the current 2/B high before declining again, but presuming SPX breaks 5390, then that would most likely resolve bearishly.  If it holds 5390, then anything is possible.  Not much else to add beyond that, but do continue to keep in mind that big picture, we were looking for a possible MAJOR top when the market topped, so the most bearish long-term potential is that we just ended the bull market.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Fed Day and Targets

Today is, of course, a Fed day, which means that precisely at high noon (plus two hours), Jerome Powell will emerge from his pod and fight a dramatic Duel to the Death with the financial press corps, armed with only his notes and a Browning .50 caliber heavy machine gun. (He keeps that hidden in the podium most of the time.)  Everyone is expecting the Fed to keep rates steady -- but they're also expecting the Fed to provide lots of Happy Talk about how things are going swimmingly and thus hint at rate cuts coming down the line.  

If this Happy Talk doesn't happen, then keep an eye out for the .50 cal.

Chart-wise, it's still a case where nothing of any technical significance has happened since Friday's update, but don't worry, I'm not going to publish more bunny pictures today.  That was a one-time thing (unless I decide to use that joke again in the future, in which case... anyway, no promises).  Despite SPX remaining range bound, I am able to provide some potential target zones (one of them being the same zone I mentioned on the forum on Monday):

Keep in mind that in the event SPX is done correcting, then Target 3 would be "a retest of the all-time highs, plus/minus."

INDU is still not entirely playing along with the bear ideas, which continues to make me feel like at least some degree of bear caution is called for:

Of note, COMPQ did make a slight new low yesterday, which makes it look a bit more like maybe it will want another wave down after this bounce, so it and INDU still feel like they may not be on the exact same page, with SPX somewhere in the middle.  Not much to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

INDU and Bunny Updates

Literally nothing happened in SPX since last update.  

Which means nothing has changed -- so today, we should just enjoy these cute bunny pictures:

As we can see from these images, there's really no reason to stress about doing an update with nothing to add today.  We should just reread Friday's update if we have any questions.  

The only thing worth mentioning today that's different from Friday would be INDU:

In conclusion, we can see that, although there appear to be four bunnies in the second picture, all four look pretty much the same, so we can't be 100% certain it's not one bunny in four different poses.  Also, INDU managed to get back above blue resistance, at least for now, which gives bulls some options if it sticks.  No other change beyond that.