SPX, COMPQ, INDU: COMPQ Captures Upside Target

Let's start with COMPQ, which has now captured its "official" upside target from May along with its "unofficial" upside target zone from November of last year:

INDU remains worth keeping an eye on:

And SPX is into "fifth wave could complete whenever it wants" territory:

In conclusion, we're probably getting close (days to weeks) to a significant correction, and potentially even to the start of a new bear market.  That said, fifth waves are intentionally tricky to nail down, so they always leave themselves the option for things like fifth wave extensions, just to severely punish bears one last time... so my policy is generally to await an impulsive decline before deciding to buck the trend with any conviction.  Even after that first impulse down, MOST OF THE TIME (not always, of course), there's a big bounce that comes reasonably close to the prior high, and that's usually a reasonable time for bears to get serious.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: A Thankless Job

 So, the chart pretty much speaks for itself again.

Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Gnus is Good Gnus

Not much has happened since last update, so no change and nothing to add:

Last update's conclusion is probably worth repeating as well:

In conclusion, keep in mind that even if SPX does go on to new highs (never guaranteed, of course), we're getting into the general ballpark where a larger correction could show up anytime, so new highs would not necessarily be a good thing for bulls in the longer run. That said, given the general irrationality of the market this year, if new highs do manifest, it still may be wise to await an impulsive turn lower before getting too crazy on the bear side.

Trade safe. 

SPX and INDU: Target 1.9883... Captured?

On Friday, SPX came within spitting distance of Target 2, then bounced like a Fed-sanctioned superball.  This creates a pretty clear line in the sand for bulls to hold if they want to continue on to form Wave 5 up:

INDU is interesting, and there are multiple possibilities in its pattern -- including the possibility that a larger correction in INDU has already begun.  In that option, INDU could bounce in wave 2/B while SPX rallies to a modest new high in Wave 5, before they both decline again together.  Not 100% clear that's the play, but it's certainly on the table.

In conclusion, keep in mind that even if SPX does go on to new highs (never guaranteed, of course), we're getting into the general ballpark where a larger correction could show up anytime, so new highs would not necessarily be a good thing for bulls in the longer run.  That said, given the general irrationality of the market this year, if new highs do manifest, it still may be wise to await an impulsive turn lower before getting too crazy on the bear side.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: First Target Captured, Typos Notwithstanding

Ugh.  Last update contained a typo, end if theirs won theeng I HAYT, its typsoes.  Hopefully, the context of said typo made it obvious to readers what it was supposed to be:

So, SPX captured its first target, and seems set to bounce this morning, but it remains to be seen if that's going to be it.  Bulls now need to get back above the red line to keep bears at bay.

INDU has now gone so deep that (see chart -- and TYPO, with "second" supposed to be "section"):

I can't find my sarcastic COMPQ chart at the moment but suffice to say it's still well above any areas of concern, so perhaps INDU was a triangle and COMPQ (as I wrote and suspected) was not.

In conclusion, on the one hand, it still appears reasonable to think SPX might have one more high lurking out there, but on the other hand, we are trying to nail down what is potentially the last micro high before a larger correction, and sometimes that's almost impossible to do -- so if the downtrend continues, caution becomes warranted for bulls.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Testing, One, Two

SPX has gone a whole lotta nowhere since last update, but futures indicate it's probably going to retest last week's low on the open, so let's look at some options there, with the red trendline (plus/minus) being the next seemingly-important zone:

INDU is in a similar position:

Not much to add beyond that, as it's something of a "wait and see" as the market tests a potential support zone here.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Three Charts for a Three-Day Weekend

Last update expected SPX probably still needed at least one more high, which we got on whatever day that was.  But of course, it's never that simple (except for the last few weeks, when it was pretty simple to keep betting on higher prices), and it's entirely possible that the recent ATH was actually a b-wave.  If that's the case, bulls still get another high -- so let's look at some charts and try to figure that out, starting with SPX:

Next up, let's look at some "for and against" arguments, in the form of INDU and COMPQ.  INDU first:

"However," says that chart, "see COMPQ."  Fine, let's see it then:

So we can see that COMPQ and SPX probably give a slight edge to bulls, while INDU is a bit less clear.  To muddy the waters a bit, even if bulls still have the longer-term ball, there's always the option for a BIG b-wave high and a c-wave back below the April lows -- but we'll not worry too much about that just yet, we'll just know it's one of the options.  Don't forget the market's closed on Monday -- trade, and be, safe.