SPX and BKX: SPX Captures Upside Target

Since last update, SPX continued tracking the preferred count and captured its first upside target:

I was asked to update BKX, so here it is.  This chart actually already contained all the relevant information, specifically: that bear 1 would invalidate above 105, that this would not invalidate the larger bear 2/b, and that the upper blue line (+/-) would then become the next likely target:

In conclusion, with SPX's target capture, things do feel a little trickier again, despite the fact that, at the moment, I'm inclined to lean toward the idea that 4/5 up are still needed.  But that's certainly not a given, so we'll see how it develops.  I'll try to update oil in the next update.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: The Early Years

It's always nice when you map out the market in advance and the market plays along, so you only need to look at everything to make sure nothing weird has happened, and if it hasn't, you can say, "no change" and publish the same charts again.

So that's exactly what I'm doing!  Because there will be plenty of times in the future when the market causes much weeping and gnashing of teeth, so we have to enjoy these relatively easy times when they come along:

COMPQ, too, has continued following its expected path (upward).  I've added a preliminary target for bull 5, though I reserve the right to refine that target (possibly higher) as the wave structure reveals itself a bit more:

In conclusion, inflation is still raging, World War III: The Early Years is already underway, the birthrate in America has fallen off a cliff, and AI will probably kill us all anyway -- so what's not to love about equities here?  Nothing, that's what.  Buy, Mortimer, buy!

Of course, after Bull 5 completes, all those aforementioned "bullish" goings-on will finally start to seem negative to people and threats will "suddenly" appear on the radar of the masses as the news cycle and mass psychology turn negative.  Seemingly without warning (for people who've been asleep since ~2009, anyway).  But we're not there yet, and there's always the possibility that Bull 5 will run even farther than it appears from here, so patience is still advised for bears -- though just a quick reminder that the near-term bearish black bear C (first chart) is still a technical possibility, even if it seems less likely, so I never advise complete complacency.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: It Took More Than 50 Seconds to Think Up This Title

Last update anticipated that the market would move a bit higher to complete wave iii, then correct in wave iv before moving higher again.  It appears that's what happened, though I can't entirely rule out the possibility that the third and fourth waves we saw on Friday were of even lower degree, with the completion of wave iii still to come.

Other than that, nothing to add to recent updates.  The market continues to behave in line with expectations, which is about the best we can ever hope for.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Patients with Patience

The last couple updates have opined that bulls continue to have the edge, and the market has since borne that out.  Presuming this wave is to become a straightforward impulse and not something weird and wacky, then it might roughly follow the path laid out below (though would likely stretch out over a bit more time than I had space to show on the chart):

Bears will get another inflection zone at the blue 3/c label, at which time it's always possible for a flat to develop (a flat is represented by the black "bear: C" at the bottom of the chart), but for now, I continue to lean toward the simplest explanation of the fifth wave running itself out now.  Be aware that after this wave completes (ideally up near the blue 5 label), then bears could finally get something significant going.  Until then, patience probably continues to remain the order of the day for bears.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: MacArthur Park in the Driving Snow

Last update expected bulls would follow through, and they have, so far, since capturing their first "Bull: 3" target from April 26 (5200-20).  Again, I didn't need to even move the label, which is nice, since it saves me approximately 6.39 seconds of work, which really adds up over time and -- if I can amass enough of these -- may ultimately allow me enough extra time for one last leisurely cup of coffee at the end of my life.  Hard to put a price on that.

As the chart above discusses, the most likely (not guaranteed, of course) pattern is still the bull pattern, which suggests we're in a small fourth wave correction now, but that SPX will go on to form an impulsive rally wave that ultimately targets 5290-5340 (okay, that target isn't on the chart because I ran out of space).  As also noted, bears are not completely without options here at the infamous, if minor, Bull: 3 Inflection, so we'll stay on our toes just in case any declines start to appear impulsive.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: The Ballad of Spiro Agnew

Since last update, bulls have retaken 5123 SPX, which implies they have more in the tank than bears right now.  There are still, of course, bear patterns that could materialize, but considering SPX turned up right at the Red C inflection (three waves down being an ABC, and ABCs being corrective patterns), it's more of a stretch to cling to bear patterns than it is to assume bulls are probably going to get what they want (new ATHs, ultimately).

COMPQ also turned higher at its inflection, and as mentioned two weeks ago, probably NEEDS another high to start looking like a more complete pattern:

In conclusion, bears could always whip out a surprise turn here, but so far, the stars appear to have aligned for bulls.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Right Said Fed

Last update concluded:  

So, this is a do-or-die moment for bulls and bears. If bulls could turn it back up over this week's high, then they could have a bull nest underway and launch a strong rally. If bears can keep pushing lower and break 4953, then they will be getting into the ballpark of a possible impulsive decline, which could signal a larger trend change. The upcoming sessions could thus be important for setting the intermediate tone of the market. 

And the market's gone nowhere since then, largely ignoring Fed Chair Jerr Ohm Pow Well's statement that there had been a distinct "lack of progress" on inflation, while keeping rates steady.

Accordingly, there's been no real change:

Are there patterns where bulls could marginally exceed 5124, but that then turn out bearish?  Or patterns where bears marginally break 4953 before the market reverses higher?  Certainly, on both counts.  But those remain the best levels we have for the time being.  Trade safe.