Commentary and chart analysis featuring Elliott Wave Theory, classic TA, and frequent doses of sarcasm.
Work published on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq.com, Investing.com, RealClearMarkets, Minyanville, et al
Join the ongoing discussion with our friendly, knowledgeable, and collegial forum community here!
Amazon
Friday, January 19, 2024
The Bull Case: Weimar 2.0?
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
SPX and NYA Updates
Friday, January 12, 2024
SPX Update
Last update discussed the possibility that the high at 4793 was a b-wave, and SPX has since resolved that question in the affirmative. I've added some new discussion of zones to watch to that short-term SPX chart:
Bigger picture, SPX is still contending with the very-long-term resistance line that we've been watching and discussing for the past half a year:
In conclusion, the complex flat discussed on the first chart might be one way for bears to get some near-term action and for bulls to stretch this into a larger fourth wave while they try to build momentum to clear the VLT trend line above. Of course, if that complex flat were to occur, then it would also open the book to more bearish options -- but first things first, and let's see how all this resolves. Trade safe.
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
SPX Update
At this point, there isn't a lot to say in follow up to Monday's update, but I did include a chart discussion regarding the near-term:
Not much to add beyond that, for now. Trade safe.
Monday, January 8, 2024
SPX, NYA, COMPQ, INDU: Shock the Monkey
Since capturing its June "bull count" target, SPX has remained in a near-term downtrend. Let's look at a few charts.
This jives with the very long term trend line that we've been watching since July:
COMPQ has also stalled at its inflection zone:
As has NYA:
For bears, the one monkey in the works is probably INDU:
In conclusion, multiple markets have reached and reacted to their inflection zones, so score one for inflection zones, if nothing else. It's too early to say if these reactions will be short-lived or will turn into a full-on resumption of the bear market, but that possibility is at least on the table (and fun to consider, since I suspect it would catch almost everyone by surprise). Even the more bullish case could see a meaningful correction develop, though there are no concrete targets for such a move yet. Trade safe.