SPX, NYA, COMPQ: Don't Change for You, Don't Change a Thing for Me

Those of you with internet access may have noticed that today's title continues the long-running tradition (two days) of referencing classic 80s songs.  Not sure if I'll try this again on Wednesday, but I Just Can't Get Enough, so I will be Right Here Waiting to see If This Is It or not.

As the title implies, no change from last update, but I did want to bring forward the NYA chart, which I haven't updated in a while, because it's right at rising support.  If bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then a sustained breakdown here quite likely takes NYA down toward blue 3/C:

SPX is unchanged:

Hanging out just below green, and no change:

No change to the targets:

COMPQ still flirting with next support:

In conclusion, no real change to anything.  Several market are still sitting at or near theoretical support zones -- if bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then that tells us something about the strength (or lack thereof) of the market.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: (And I Feel Fine)

Yesterday, SPX confirmed my prediction from September 6, which was that trade below 4460 implied a trip below 4335.  But SPX has done more than that since last update.  Let's start with the big picture and work backwards, to understand why my lean from August 18 is seeming even more reasonable now:

Note the presumed levels on the "roadmap" sketch above and compare with the red 3 target below -- red 3 should take us perilously close to overlap of the key levels above.  That will probably trigger a bounce, which would be red 4 and we'll have to hold our breath there because there will be three waves down (which could always be a corrective ABC) and no overlap yet.  Then, if all that is in the correct ballpark, red 5 will take us down to new lows (below red 3, anyway) and finally overlap the key levels.

Bears finally broke the green trend line, but of course, have yet to hold that against whipsaws, so I don't want to imply that we should be complacent here, as the "complex intermezzo correction" is still on the table (if seemingly less likely):

Finally, COMPQ broke red and blue support, but closed the session right at its next support zone, so a bounce isn't unreasonable here, and bears do need to claim that (which I suspect they will) to add confidence:

In conclusion, SPX this month has captured two upside targets and two downside targets.  The next targets are listed, while bulls' main hope for the foreseeable future seems to be, at best, for a complex correction.  And while my lean on August 18 went against the grain at the time, it may not seem so outlandish now, and I continue to suspect we're in the very early stages of a massive third wave decline, to break the 2022 lows and beyond.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, and SPX Again: You Have Too Much Freedom

Yesterday, SPX confirmed the rare WXY pattern.  Experts warned that such patterns would become more common due to climate change, and this pattern JUST HAPPENED (it's clearly become common; aka: recency bias), thereby proving that:

1. Climate change is real and therefore every statement we make about it is also true.
2. Anything real is also automatically a "crisis" as long as we repeat the term "crisis" over and over while simultaneously silencing all contrary views.
3. You have too much freedom.
4. Actually, ALL Americans have too much freedom.  We need to figure out a way to gain control over them since the democratic process is not to be trusted.
5. Maybe we can convince them to let us take away their cars?  
6. And their stoves and heat.
7. And their food.
8. And drive their cost of living through the roof.  By fiat if we can't sell them on it.
9. That would learn 'em.  
10. Err... we mean, totalitarianism would be better for us.
11. Wait!  We mean that stuff will help solve the "crisis" we just proved exists!  Refer back to #1.

(The above rant, in part, illustrates how bad logic and propaganda work:  Just because WXY was proven true, it does not automatically follow that every -- or any! -- statement we link to WXY is also true.)

SPX found support at the blue trend line:

COMPQ broke below red, but also held its blue trend line (so far):

Finally, we probably shouldn't entirely ignore the fact that there is a bull option here:

I want to lean toward the bear options, because the world is going to hell in a handbasket and we all know it, but the deck chairs on the Titanic can always be rearranged before it sinks.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: W__s on First

Last update opined that SPX had formed a WXY complex corrective wave (a WXY is two 3-wave structures, such as two abcs, connected by another 3-wave structure called an X wave) -- personally, I hate WXYs, because the options for such a structure can be endless and thus "WXY" becomes a call that's dependent on your prior reads and bias -- but it appears that's exactly what it was.

COMPQ is on the edge of a breakdown, so we'll see if bulls can muster any kind of bounce here or not:

In conclusion, so far, there's nothing that's happened to give bulls much hope, so while bears still have some work to do, they do still appear to have the edge at present.  Trade safe.

SPX and Climate Update

SPX finally did something a bit out of the ordinary yesterday and formed what appears to be a WXY complex corrective wave.  Experts warn that these types of unusual waves are only going to become more frequent due to climate change.  

(I've finally learned from the media that anything bad, particularly if it's also uncommon, should always be linked, however tenuously and without evidence, to "climate change."  Do this by citing "experts" or "scientists," as if all scientists view the world the exact same way, in order to spread irrational superstitious fea... ahem, I mean in order to "raise awareness" of the challenges traders face due to climate change, which itself is being made even worse by climate change.  Note that nothing good can ever be attributed to climate change, because climate change pauses entirely for every single beautiful, sunny day and only picks back up again for headlines.  The climate changes - obviously, you denier! - but it's not a constant, universal change, because that would, unavoidably, also improve the weather on some days.  Climate change is extremely selective, only appearing when we want something to blame.)

Anyway, we'll see if bears can hold this to the potential WXY, or if it morphs into something more bullish due to climate change.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: 3rd Target in a Row Captured; Inflation Prediction Coming to Pass

 On Monday, SPX rallied up into its next real-time target zone, then reversed:

In other news, back in July, I made a prediction -- I didn't specify this at the time (it seemed self-evident), but that prediction was predicated on another prediction:  The first prediction was that oil had broken out of a basing pattern and thus would continue rallying.  That happened.  The second prediction was that this would cause inflation to begin heating up again.  And while it took a minute to make itself known in the broader economy, today, we have confirmation that that, too, has happened.

Not much to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

Since capturing its downside targets, SPX has continued bouncing.  I've noted the next upside targets on the near-term chart:

Bigger picture, bears do still need to ultimately claim the green trend line, and while the bear options look better given the overlap at the blue a/1 high (on the chart above), until that green line fails, we can't entirely rule out bull options such as an ending diagonal (with the apparent three wave rally being wave i of the diagonal) and so on:

Not much to add beyond that, other than to pay respects to 9/11.  Trade safe.