SPX Update: Next Downside Targets Captured

Last update outlined the next key downside levels, presented as two if/then targets -- both "ifs" happened, and both "then" targets were subsequently captured:

The chart above outlines the next potential targets, as long as the recent swing high holds.  Beyond that, nothing to add to the big picture.  Trade safe.

COMPQ and SPX: Upside Target Captured

Last week's updates focused on the next upside target zone for SPX, and that zone was captured on Friday:

While it's obviously of no harm to bears to see SPX rejected from its target zone, they do still have things to accomplish to get to the next phase.  SPX (above) outlines some of the immediately-close zones, while COMPQ (below) takes a broader view:

On the flip side, bulls are still below their next meaningful resistance zone:

In conclusion, SPX reached its target zone and was rejected, we'll see if bears can do more with that.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Next Upside Target Just Overhead

Last update noted that multiple methodologies targeted higher prices in SPX, and the market has trended higher since, with the next upside target zone now just overhead.  ES (e-mini S&P futures) actually tagged the target zone on the nonfarm payroll number, then stalled, but presumably that zone will also be reached by the cash market (though very occasionally a target is captured by futures and the market deems that "good enough" with cash never following suit).

On a side note, to my recollection, every single nonfarm payroll of 2023 has ended up being revised downward.  In fact, last month's report was the same as this month's (187k) upon release, but now sits at 157k as of its most recent downward revision.  June was originally reported at 209k but was ultimately cut in half (to 105k) by its final revision.  Are the folks running this show really that bad at this?  Or is there a reason the revisions only go one direction (with the initial number being overinflated in the direction that helps the headlines)?  I mean, you'd think if it was just random "bad guesses," then they'd guess too low roughly half the time and occasionally have to revise a number higher instead of always "guessing" way too high for the headline.  But that doesn't seem to be happening in 2023.

COMPQ is, for now, comfortably back into the middle of its uptrend channel:

In conclusion, SPX appears likely to capture its next upside target zone.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

Yesterday saw the rally lunge higher, so no real change from 8/21, when I noted we'd reached the three-wave downside inflection zone, and thus that bears would need at least one more wave down to make things more interesting.  So far, bears haven't been able to get that done, so the possibility that the prior swing low marked the end of a corrective decline remains on the table.

COMPQ still illustrates bears' conundrum:

I've drawn up an SPX chart noting some levels of interest:

In conclusion, there's nothing to indicate a larger trend change yet, so we'll watch to see if that changes or if bulls run with it.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Support Still Holding

On Friday, after Jerome Powell came out and said something along the lines of "We're going to keep hammering at the credit markets until housing breaks," bears seemed to take an early lead -- but then their decline stalled short of the key levels and reversed higher for the remainder of the session.  

A week ago, I opined that the decline had formed "three large waves down," and the market has held that low ever since, which does mean that the most bullish possibility cannot yet be eliminated (the most bullish possibility is that the decline was a correction, and that correction is over).  Bears still need at least one more low to turn the decline into a larger impulse down, so the next key downside level has not changed from when I first discussed it on 8/23:

COMPQ has also continued to hold its key zone:

To the upside, the key zone for bulls remains the previously-discussed trend line:

Not much to update beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Monday's Upside Inflection Target Captured

On Monday, I posted a "keep it simple" chart of SPX (and literally just now realized I uploaded another SPX chart where I was trying to upload NYA -- ah well, irrelevant) and discussed an option for SPX to rally back up to test a confluence that had caught my eye.  It did test that confluence, and was then strongly rejected:

COMPQ can also run into trouble if it sustains a breakdown below support and its recent low:

In conclusion, we can see that several major markets are implying the potential for big trouble on sustained breakdowns of support.  Now it's really just up to bears to make it happen.  And I suspect they ultimately will -- but as noted Monday, I do have to respect the potential inflection at the recent lows, which means that, despite my lean here, it's certainly not impossible for bulls to pull out a stick save and we should stay nimble accordingly.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ Updates

Monday's update suggested that the market had reached an inflection zone, which meant a larger bounce was possible.  We did get some upside follow through, but then Tuesday retraced much of it.  We can see SPX's low came at a very old trend line, so that's going to be the next zone bears need:

We discussed COMPQ's trend line on Monday, and while it's not as old, the implications are similar:

Finally, SPX's "keep it simple" chart below.  SPX made it back into the red channel, but it's entirely possible that completed a three-wave rally, so bulls will need to clear Monday's high:

In conclusion, there are enough waves up from Friday's low to mark a complete corrective rally if the market wants, which means the upside level is fairly clear.  On the downside, there are multiple trend lines crossing Friday's low, so that level is even more significant (though, if it fails, always watch out for whipsaws and sudden snap-backs on the first breakdown, before the "real" move begins).  Trade safe.