SPX, NYA, COMPQ: Into an Inflection

There are a million ways to count the decline from this year's high, but in my opinion, it's now three large waves down (recall that three large waves down means two smaller impulsive waves connected by a corrective wave) -- the question is whether those three waves are complete yet (and it's terribly unclear; they could be, or not.  Neither would surprise me here.).  If they are, then a larger bounce would be in the cards now (see chart below).

The next question will be whether those three waves can go on to form a still-larger impulse down, which would in turn more strongly suggest an intermediate decline.  But let's not get too far ahead of things yet, as "the evil of the day" is sufficient to wrestle with for now.  Accordingly, I've tried to create something of an "all in one" chart with a focus on clarity for SPX:

An interesting companion to that chart would be NYA.  In the event NYA wanted to back test its broken red trend line, we can see how that would align nicely with a test of the confluence on the SPX chart above.  Of course, that's not a "guarantee" that the market will go that route, just something that would display some consistency across markets if it did:

Finally, COMPQ dipped below support, but bulls can still salvage things if they act quickly:

In conclusion, we're into an inflection zone down toward the SPX 4300 (+/-) zone, so we'll see how the market reacts here.  Again, in the event bulls can't pull things together soon, then things can get slippery to the downside.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: INDU Captures Both Downside Targets

It's time for me to bite the bullet here.  At least since August 4, I've been wanting to throw caution to the wind and proclaim the rally over, but are you kidding me?  Have you seen this market for the past 6 months?  No one in their right mind would ever declare the rally over, ever.  So I'm not going to do that just yet, but I will say I've been leaning that way for two weeks, and so far, the market is giving more and more reason to continue leaning that way.

Let's look at some charts.  

First up, INDU captured both its downside targets:

Turns out this VLT SPX trend line was a good one:

Next, NYA is close to overlap:

Here's one for the bulls:  COMPQ support just below.

And one for the bears:

In conclusion, I have no issue with admitting my lean is early (it was actually way early, but I didn't feel it was prudent to discuss yet), so the market could surprise and change its appearance to something more bullish, but so far, everything continues to align for bears.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ, BKX: Just Waiting on the Steak

INDU broke below its key zone from last update, which implies either a snap-back rally fairly directly (which would likely revisit current levels afterwards) or an immediate follow-through decline.  Immediate and meaningful bull options seem less likely, so this break seems to favor the bears for the near-term... and possibly much longer, as we'll see.

Let's take a look at SPX first to understand why:

As we've known for a while, SPX hit a major long-term resistance line, and has so far been rejected.  While rejections at resistance (or bounces at support) aren't necessarily the end of the world, this is, again, about the best bears can hope for at this stage.  And combined with the potential for three complete rally waves (as shown above), it's definitely worth sitting up and taking notice.

COMPQ next:

Next, NYA:

And finally, BKX:

In conclusion, bears have their place at the table all set, now they're just waiting to see if the waiter brings the steak (which in this case, would be a sustained breakdown at SPX support).  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, OIL: Oil Approaching March Upside Target

First, I'd intended a couple more charts, but Stockcharts did that thing where it lets me write a bunch of stuff on the chart and then just deletes it, after which it displays a .gif of Kamala Harris laughing hysterically.  So I ran out of time and we'll have to settle for three charts.

We'll start with oil.  I'd called the bottom at 64.36, but that turned out to be a few pennies early, though the larger count shown then appears to have been correct, and I haven't moved anything (included the "2?" which I should have moved but forgot on my second attempt to get Stockcharts to accept my edits):

For our near-term proxy, we'll use INDU again (SPX would be expected to track):

Finally, SPX has remained stalled at the very long-term trend line, which may prove to be quite significant as time goes by:

In conclusion, we have a fairly clear zone to watch in INDU, and bull hopes are better served by staying above that zone, while bear hopes are best severed below it.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ, BKX, INDU: Trying to Whipsaw

Last update predicted:

While it's always possible bulls will surge again, the fact that multiple markets are still below resistance heading into an important data point (one which could well show inflation rising again) leads me to suspect bears will manage to pull out the win over the near-term and create at least "another" 3/C down ("or 3/C" on the first INDU chart).

Headline CPI inflation is not showing as rising again (yet), but producer prices showed their largest increase since January -- and, either way, bears did pull out the win due to overhead resistance, and INDU indeed seems to have gotten "another" 3/C down exactly as shown in the last update.  The real question for INDU at this point is whether it feels like it needs ANOTHER up/down sequence or not:

SPX has continued reacting to very long-term resistance:

BKX has continued reacting to the resistance zone I highlighted a month ago:

NYA has continued reacting to its resistance zone:

And finally, COMPQ is in the process of trying to whipsaw its last breakout:

In conclusion, the market has remained disheartened by resistance -- but the big question on everyone's mind is whether we have an impulsive decline yet.  By all rights, the decline does appear to be impulsive in both NYA and SPX.  There's some lingering possibility that the high was a B-wave, but I'm not leaning that way and if bears can keep pushing a bit lower, that option should be erased.  Presuming the decline is not a b-wave, then the implication is that if there's another bounce from here, there should also be another leg down.  The more bearish option would be to continue lower directly, without another large bounce.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, NYA: CPI and Resistance

Tomorrow is CPI, which the market is watching with interest (no pun intended) for obvious reasons, so let's keep things simple today.

First off, the near-term options, illustrated via INDU (other markets should roughly track this, but INDU was the clearest for purposes of conveying information to readers):

Bigger picture, NYA remains below key resistance:

And even bigger picture, SPX remains below key resistance:

While it's always possible bulls will surge again, the fact that multiple markets are still below resistance heading into an important data point (one which could well show inflation rising again) leads me to suspect bears will manage to pull out the win over the near-term and create at least "another" 3/C down ("or 3/C" on the first INDU chart).  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ: Watching the Wheels Go 'Round and 'Round

 In the last update, I wrote:

Here's what we have so far: 

1. The market has indeed encountered resistance at the resistance lines we've been watching. 
2. This is about the best bears could have hoped for at this point, but 
3. So far, the decline is not yet impulsive. 

In other words, it's everything bears could want at this stage, but thus far is not enough to definitively signal they have the ball, so "just a near-term correction" is still possible. I can't sum it up much better than that.

And this is still where we are today.  I do want to add, however, that the significance here probably can't be overstated:  Multiple markets tagged resistance, ranging from intermediate to very-long-term, in concert, and were rejected.  Bears still have their work cut out for them, but so do bulls.  If bulls cannot claim those resistance zones, then lots of people could get caught standing around gawking at "the most obvious top in the world."  So we should stay on our toes here.

NYA's action was interesting on Friday:

And COMPQ is still testing its old trend line. 

In conclusion, no change so far:  Bears have hope on this reaction to resistance, but no confirmation of anything else just yet.  Trade safe.

(Side note: If anyone is wondering where the title came from:)