SPX, NYA, COMPQ: Second Verse, Same as the First

The market barely moved during Monday's short session, so I'm not going to strain myself trying to think of something new and exciting to say, since there's literally nothing to add to Monday's update.  I have updated the charts with the latest price action, but there's nothing else to do beyond that.

In italics is the same text from Monday's update:

SPX cleared its most recent high on Friday, as did NYA, putting NYA closer to its significant level (blue (C)).

SPX may have cut its last fourth wave a bit short -- though could still form an expanded flat to create a larger fourth wave:

And last but not least, COMPQ is finally back testing the very long-term trend line we've been watching for a year or so:

In conclusion, not much to add to the past few updates. We're still watching 16223 in NYA closely.  I look forward to the day when the market allows me to stop repeating myself,

I look forward to the day when the market allows me to stop repeating myself.

Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ: Back Test

SPX cleared its most recent high on Friday, as did NYA, putting NYA closer to its significant level (blue (C)).

SPX may have cut its last fourth wave a bit short -- though could still form an expanded flat to create a larger fourth wave:

And last but not least, COMPQ is finally back testing the very long-term trend line we've been watching for a year or so:

In conclusion, not much to add to the past few updates.  We're still watching 16223 in NYA closely.  Don't forget today is a short session, and have a safe and enjoyable Fourth of July.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates

There's little change from the past few updates, but last update I did state that my lean was that the current bounce was wave 2/B, and that lean is going to be tested today.  While B-waves aren't subject to the same rules as second waves, the second wave option would be off the table north of 4449 (the B wave would not).  

The micro count outcomes above have no impact on the bigger picture:

NYA is the market that has greater potential to impact the big picture -- if it were to sustain trade north of the blue (C) high, then that would signal slow going for bears for a while.  That could either take the form of a diagonal, which would need at least several more weeks of sideways up, or a bull nest (or a b-wave high -- but let's not worry too much about these unless/until bulls break the blue (C) high!  In a perfect world, they won't break it at all.)

In conclusion, not much to add to recent updates.  Don't forget that Monday is a short session (close is at 1 p.m.), and Tuesday is the Fourth of July, so the market is closed.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates

Last update noted that we could potentially have a bounce in the near-term, and my lean is that this bounce is probably wave 2 or B, correcting the first leg of the decline from 4448, to be followed by wave 3 or C down toward the black 4 on the near-term SPX chart:

Because of the potential ending diagonal near the low, I can't guarantee we get another wave down, but it seems a bit more probable than the alternative.

Bigger picture, there's no change:

NYA remains the same as well:

In conclusion, no change from the past few updates.  If one is of the bearish persuasion, then this bounce could be viewed as an opportunity for a small stab against the invalidation levels (this is not trading advice), since the most bearish potential allows the option that ALL OF 2 completed at 4448.  The bullish near-term option would just see us power back up beyond 4448 directly, but again, that looks slightly less likely than the option of at least one more leg down toward black 4 (and possibly beyond, if ALL OF 2 completed already).  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: Big Picture and Near-term Counts for this Major Inflection Zone

Last update I outlined some of the reasons I'm still betting on the bears for the bigger picture, so today we'll do a deeper dive into the near term.

Before we do that, though, let's look again at where we seem to be at the intermediate level, starting with NYA (no change from recent updates):

SPX:

And now, the near term.  It doesn't require any creative counting to come up with five complete waves, but the overall structure would "look" a bit better with one more high:

In conclusion, SPX and NYA have both stalled at the lower edges of their respective inflection zones -- and again, these are not minor inflection zones, these are major inflections with significant downside potential if they generate a turn (which I am currently presuming they will).  Both markets appear to need at least a bit more downside (potentially after a bounce in 2/B up), so we'll be watching that closely to see if it exceeds what might be expected for a fourth wave (black 4 on the final chart).  If this is a fourth wave, then the market has some wiggle room to head a little higher afterwards, back into the higher edges of the inflection zone.  If no fourth wave materializes, then the bear market may be gearing up to resume in the near future.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: Still Betting on the Bears

Last update discussed the gravity of the current inflection zone, and today's update will continue that theme.

The first chart we'll look at is NYA.  The thing about this chart is that if NYA were to sustain trade north of 16223, then that would imply NYA was in the third wave (current wave up from red b/2) of a still larger third wave (up from the low last year -- blue (C) would become A/1 under that scenario).  That's an extremely bullish setup, so I just have a hard time buying into that here, in part because the market seems to lack the fundamentals and liquidity to support such a bull run.

Thus, I'm betting on the bears to hold NYA below blue (C).  If they can't, then we'll burn that bridge if/when we come to it.

SPX is in a similar position as far as allowing the option for another small wave up, but a bit less cut and dried regarding its upside line in the sand.

In conclusion, bears have everything they need here, and the market has worked off much of the bear sentiment from last year, so a bear move would come as a "shock" to the majority again, which is ideal.  Now all bears have to do is keep holding the blue (C) high on NYA.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: Important Inflection Zone

A week ago, I wrote:

I'm very close to publishing [the alternate intermediate bull count] now (eighty percent of the time, "finally" publishing a bull count is the best way to create a bear move, so we'll see if the threat of publication is enough to cause the market to reverse, or if I actually need to publish the bull count to really force the market's hand).

I then published that count on Friday, and lo and behold, after exceeding the SPX target/inflection zone by a hair, the market reversed that very session.  Interestingly, NYA fell a hair short of its target/inflection, but also reversed.  Let's start there:

As we can see, NYA could support one more smallish wave up, but if we are indeed on the cusp of a bear move, it would not be uncommon for such a wave to fail to materialize.

SPX is in a similar position:

As yet, we don't quite have a small impulse down, but a couple sets of slightly lower lows today might accomplish that.  

In conclusion, this is -- quietly, for the masses -- a major inflection zone.  The market does have a little leeway to run a little bit higher if it wants (and still remain in the inflection zone), but if there's a bear move to come, such moves often attempt to take "everyone" by surprise.  Trade safe.