SPX and NYA: Two Interesting Ancient Charts

 Let's start off with a look at NYA, which continues to lag severely:

Next, a reminder of my current near-term view, which is unchanged since last week:

This lag suggests two diametrically opposed possibilities: Either SPX only has a little more upside, and the rest of the market will drag it back down -- or SPX is headed toward at least Red 2 and that will drag the rest of the market up. NYA may become particularly germane here -- IF it can break above the red c/3 high, as it would then need to go on to form 5 waves from the 15055 low. Right now, because of the divergences across markets, it's a bit early to determine how significant SPX's breakout may or may not be, so how these markets collectively behave during the upcoming sessions will be important toward drawing firmer conclusions one way or the other about the larger time frames.

Next up, there is potential intermediate resistance overhead in SPX on two different scales, the first of which is shown below:

Long-term resistance shows on the next chart as well -- which also happens to be a crazy projection chart I drew more than a year ago.  I haven't moved anything on this chart since then:

In conclusion, NYA continues to want to try to pull SPX down.  SPX is also facing overhead resistance, which just happens to roughly line up with a chart I drew before the bear market was even being called a "bear market" by the masses.  So, it will be interesting to see if we're getting into the ballpark of a turn, or not.  Trade safe.

NYA Update: First target captured, and a look at the most interesting chart

Last update called out SPX 4100-11 as the next zone to watch, and SPX declined to 4103 and found support in that first target zone.  As noted last update, if SPX can sustain a breakdown below the first zone, then 4040-51 becomes the next zone to watch.

Since SPX is back into a congestion zone, NYA is far more interesting:

As we can see, NYA has now overlapped the 1/a high, which means that we are likely looking at a 3-wave rally on the heels of the long-presumed impulsive decline (the red 12345 back in March).  As long as bears can hold that c/3 high, then things look promising for them.

Other than that, nothing to add to the past couple updates.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, NYA: Revenge of the Lag

On Friday (and reiterated on Monday), I noted that INDU and NYA were both severely lagging SPX, and wrote:

This lag suggests two diametrically opposed possibilities: Either SPX only has a little more upside, and the rest of the market will drag it back down -- or SPX is headed toward at least Red 2 and that will drag the rest of the market up. NYA may become particularly germane here -- IF it can break above the red c/3 high, as it would then need to go on to form 5 waves from the 15055 low. Right now, because of the divergences across markets, it's a bit early to determine how significant SPX's breakout may or may not be, so how these markets collectively behave during the upcoming sessions will be important toward drawing firmer conclusions one way or the other about the larger time frames.

After Friday's update was published, SPX ran a little higher, then stalled, and it has since reversed lower.  This is (so far) in keeping with the first possibility discussed on Friday (above).

The next zones to watch in SPX are 4100-11, and, if SPX sustains trade below the first zone, 4040-51.

We can see on INDU that a sustained breakdown would suggest some downside follow through:

NYA is in a similar position:

NYA's bigger picture chart is still unchanged:

In conclusion, this is why I warned on Friday and Monday not to read too much into the breakout in SPX -- but by the same token, as of yet, we can't read too much into downward options, either.  We're still range-bound, but based on INDU and NYA, it seems reasonably likely we'll see at least some near-term downside follow-through if there's a sustained breakdown of recent lows.  And, if nothing else, this reversal is obviously preferrable for bears than the alternative.  Trade safe.

SPX Sidedate: (Well, it's not an "up"-date, and it's not a "down"-date, so...)

SPX changed by a whopping 6 points on Friday, leaving everything in the exact same position.  To the point that there's really no reason to even publish an update, frankly.  

Here's Friday's update again, which is unchanged.

That said, "market didn't do anything" doesn't mean I don't still look through my chart book to see if I missed anything or if any new clues cropped up in other markets.  I did that, as I always do, and happened to stumble across this chart from more than two months ago:

Other than that, there's nothing else to add since Friday.  This is the most exasperating market I believe I've seen in at least a decade, maybe longer.  I've even heard rumors that the next dictionary will feature a picture of the early-2023 stock market next to the definition of "ennui,".  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, INDU: SPX Finally Does a Thing

Last two updates, I thought there was a chance SPX might head down to test the 4090ish zone again, but that didn't happen, with the market finally breaking a bit higher instead.  This is the first semi-real progress SPX has made in a while, and it does change the position of the potential blue 2?:

It's interesting to note how much NYA is lagging:

And how much INDU is lagging:

This lag suggests two diametrically opposed possibilities:  Either SPX only has a little more upside, and the rest of the market will drag it back down -- or SPX is headed toward at least Red 2 and that will drag the rest of the market up.  NYA may become particularly germane here -- IF it can break above the red c/3 high, as it would then need to go on to form 5 waves from the 15055 low.  Right now, because of the divergences across markets, it's a bit early to determine how significant SPX's breakout may or may not be, so how these markets collectively behave during the upcoming sessions will be important toward drawing firmer conclusions one way or the other about the larger time frames.   Trade safe.

SPX Update: ...

SPX followed last update's blue path fairly well, even peaking at the time of day I'd suggested on Monday's chart.  I would still suspect that it's headed below 4098, which does have the potential to turn more bearish, as long as bears continue holding 4155.

Nothing else to add, so trade safe.

(If anyone missed last update, I mentioned:  I have a son graduating high school this week, and I have family in town for the next couple weeks, so unless there's actually something new to say during that time, the updates will probably be brief. Thanks for your understanding.)

SPX Update: More Fun than a Mayonnaise Popsicle

Nothing to add to the last 283 updates, since SPX held the next semi-meaningful level.  I suspect we may see something like the blue path outlined below, but I'm far from certain of that, as the pattern here is best described as "a seemingly-mindless blob."

There is, of course, nothing to add about the intermediate term, given that the market went nowhere for the entirety of last week, after going nowhere for 2023, after going nowhere since April of 2022 -- so if you require intermediate context, please refer back to prior updates.  There's really only so many different ways I can say the same thing, and I believe at this point, I have exhausted all of them (at least, short of translating into new languages!).  Trade safe.

p.s.- I have a son graduating high school this week, and I have family in town for the next couple weeks, so unless there's actually something new to say during that time, the updates will probably be brief.  Thanks for your understanding.