SPX and NYA: A Million Miles (a Million Miles)

Since last update, the market has continued its near-term churning within its even larger "lost year" of churning.  I'm inclined to lean toward Friday's low being a b-wave, so suspect that low will be revisited/broken early this week.  If that's correct, it would keep the most bearish options on the table:

Of course, after a ~year in a trading range, it gets hard to imagine the market doing anything other than running sideways for another 600 years, but that's how they getcha!

NYA does have a potentially-complete c (or 3) rally on the board:

In conclusion, everyone has had about enough of this endless grind, so we'll see if the market is ready to start doing something finally.  It's at least worth mentioning that in the most bearish world, this setup would be exceedingly bearish; we'll see if the market negates this setup or not.  Until then, there's just not much else to add.  Trade safe.

SPX: "Clowns to the Left of Me, Jokers to the Right... Here I Am, Stuck in the Middle with Glue"

I think we only need one chart today.  Weeks ago, I said that "unless/until blue 2 is broken, we're going to presume we're in blue ii," and we're now at the "do or die" stage of that presumption, since blue 2 is not far overhead.  So while Red 2 remains possible, it doesn't gain significant traction until blue 2 is broken.

In conclusion, SPX remains in the light blue circle inflection zone, so it remains to be seen if this will generate a reaction.  If this is blue ii, then a reversal should be on the horizon.  If it isn't, then it isn't, and we may know that soon enough, too.  This market has been tough because we've been stuck in a trading range for almost a year now, and patterns get increasingly difficult the longer a range continues.  Trade safe.

NYA and SPX: Back in the USSR

Let's jump right into the charts, starting with NYA, which has now captured its second upside target box:

SPX is, interestingly, back into the inflection zone I mentioned a couple weeks ago:

In conclusion, I want to see if and how the market reacts to these inflection zones before commenting too much further, so we'll take a deeper dive on Wednesday.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates

Since last update, SPX has made the previously-favored b-wave low count seem less likely:

NYA has captured its first upside target zone:

If NYA reaches 15400-15800, then that is a very significant inflection zone, so I would be interested to see how the market reacts to it.

In conclusion, the near-term bear count in SPX hasn't quite been invalidated, but it's on the ropes.  NYA is now in the process of forming three waves up, and recall that three waves can be an ABC correction.  The current wave can run higher, but be aware that this can become a very significant inflection and reverse.  I'd like to see a bit more from the market before calling for a reversal, but just putting that option out there for now.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, OIL Updates

Last update focused on the near-term potentials, and the market traded sideways/down since then, leaving everything unresolved.  I've added the new relevant commentary to the near-term SPX chart:

No change in NYA:

Finally, I thought about adding this oil chart to Monday's update, then didn't, and I'm still uncertain about adding it now... but will anyway.  Oil does NOT yet have an impulsive rally off the low, so keep that in mind, as this may be premature.

In conclusion, not much to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: Near-term Potentials

Everyone should understand the big picture potentials by now, so today will focus on the near-term.

Friday's update offered a near-term option that turned out to be the only chart we needed (at least, for Friday's action):

Zooming out a bit, the near-term options appear to be as follows:

And then zooming out a bit more, if bulls were to get their ABC (either immediately or after another low), then it could lead to another leg for the rally.  (If bears are already in control, then we're already in a third wave that may not let bulls up for air for a while.)

In conclusion, the first half of Friday's near-term speculative count was a hit, we'll see if the second portion of that count works out too, but be aware of NYA's tag of the second line (above) and the "alt: bull c" option on the second chart.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, TLT Updates

Last update noted, regarding the SPX chart:

In a perfect world for bears, though, SPX stops at or before the highlighted confluence

SPX stopped at the very bottom edge of the blue zone, and shy of the confluence, so things continue to look "not particularly bullish."

I want to call attention to one potential near-term path.  The pattern isn't clear enough to call this a "hard prediction," more of a soft speculation... but the option is there, so I thought readers might want to see it:

NYA just missed its first zone and reversed.  It is now coming up on the red trend line, which may or may not offer support:

TLT is at a near-term crossroads:

Last update concluded:

[W]e do have five clear waves down (an impulse) in NYA, which means that unless that impulse is wave C of the noted expanded flat, it will be followed by another impulse down that is equal to or greater in length than the first. We cannot entirely rule out all bull options, but if this is the start of blue 3, that next impulse down will be a nested third wave and thus fairly brutal.

And bulls have done nothing to help their case, so that stands for now.  Trade safe.