NYA and SPX: Another Hit

Last update noted that SPX turned where it needed to, and within 8 points of its upside target -- and the bear count for the decline to make another new low was given as a "slight favorite."  That new low has since happened, so things are looking as rosy as they can for bears at this point.

Everything looks pretty good for Blue 2, but I always look for other potentials in case of error, which we'll discuss on the next two charts.  First, SPX is back to the red trend line:

Second, the black diagonal can't be entirely ruled out just yet, but it's probably a heavy underdog:

In conclusion, last update's lean toward another new low proved correct and bears have again done what they needed to.  While I can't entirely rule out all the near-term bull options just yet, they appear to be considerable underdogs.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates: Bears Got What They Needed So Far

In the last update, I wrote:  If the current rally is a micro fourth wave, then bears would probably like to see it end shy of 4093. (There's a gap near 4070, we'll see if the market wants to aim for that or not.)

SPX then ran to 4078 and reversed, right in the range bears needed it to, which keeps the micro fourth wave very much on the table:

Bear v, were it to materialize directly, only needs to break the low at 3928, but if it can sustain a breakdown there, then 3820-45 would certainly be within the range of possibility for bear v.

NYA is in a similar position with its micro count, and a new low there would strongly hint at the decline having become an impulsive turn lower from the proposed (C) wave high:

In conclusion, bears stopped the market just a few points beyond my eyeballed 4070 target, now they just need to push below 3928 SPX to complete a probable impulsive decline.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: 10 Months in Purgatory

If you've been finding this market somewhat frustrating, this is to be expected given that SPX has now been stuck in a trading range since May of 2022.  On the plus side, you can at least be thankful you haven't had to write about it three times a week for every week of those 10 months.  It's the little things in life that make it all worthwhile!

So, not surprisingly, there's still not a lot to add to the last ~125 updates or whatever it's been.  Last update noted:

SPX did officially capture the red trend line, so it can bounce up to break last month's high from here, or it can bounce in a small fourth wave and then go on to form a fifth wave, which would give us a larger impulse down.

SPX indeed bounced but gave no indication yet whether this is a fourth wave or the start of a return to last month's high.  If the current rally is a micro fourth wave, then bears would probably like to see it end shy of 4093.  (There's a gap near 4070, we'll see if the market wants to aim for that or not.)

We can express both counts on one chart (below):

Not much to add beyond that.  At some point, the market will get beyond this trading range and things will get interesting again, but until then, trade safe.

SPX Update

As I wrote on February 27, the "easy" part was/is over for now.  While the near-term pattern was pretty clear for a while there, it has (as noted then) reached its inflection, and inflection points are a little tougher when the larger pattern is also unresolved, which is the case here.

SPX did officially capture the red trend line, so it can bounce up to break last month's high from here, or it can bounce in a small fourth wave and then go on to form a fifth wave, which would give us a larger impulse down:

Since inflection zones present a sort of crossroads, last update talked about the potential for a complex correction; today I want to mention one more option, just because it's there.  We won't worry too much about this just yet.

In conclusion, SPX is still within the inflection zone that it reached a few days ago.  Bears need another new low to have something resembling an impulsive decline, but there's no guarantee they'll get one, so it's not a bad idea to stay nimble until this resolves.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

Since last update, SPX bounced a bit, but retraced a substantial portion of that yesterday.  Whether this will evolve into a more complex near-term correction is unclear at the moment, so I want to call attention to the potential of a larger pattern.  This isn't a prediction yet, just something to keep in mind if the decline continues:

Of course, before the above pattern can be seriously considered, bears will first need to sustain a breakdown at the red trend line:

Nothing to add to the next chart: 

And finally, big picture, blue 2 and red 2 are both still on the table:

In conclusion, bulls haven't been able to get much going so far, and if this doesn't turn into one of the more complex corrections shown/discussed in the first chart/first paragraph (the first paragraph alludes to a very near-term potential that could run back toward the 4080ish zone before declining again), it pays to remember that once all the hemming and hawing is over, the market is expected to enter a third wave decline.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: "Easy" Part is Over for Now

In Friday's update (which was published when the S&P futures were trading just off of Thursday's high), I wrote that I suspected that SPX needed another new low, which it reached at the open.  As I also wrote, that low would be an inflection point.  I wrote this because that low is potentially three complete waves down in SPX from 4195, which means we shouldn't entirely discount the possibility that bulls could regain near-term (or larger) control from here.

What bears would like to see now is a bounce in a larger fourth wave (which could take a week or longer to unfold), then another new low in a fifth wave.

SPX came up a hair short of the red trend line, but was in the ballpark:

In conclusion, the "easy" part is over for now, and I can no longer promise more new lows -- we'll just have to see how it develops for a bit, to determine if the market wants to form a potential impulse down, or if that whole decline was merely a correction.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: New Lows Confirmed -- Now What?

In last update, I was of the opinion that SPX was not done to the downside and that it would need to unwind some additional lows, which it has since done.  That said, I'm still leaning toward it needing at least one more.

No sustained breakdown at the black trend line as of yet, so that's why I can't be 100% on the above read and mentioned that Thursday's low does qualify as a potential inflection (though, again, I'm leaning toward it failing):

Other than that, nothing else to add to the prior update.  Trade safe.