SPX and NYA Updates: Bears Got What They Needed So Far

In the last update, I wrote:  If the current rally is a micro fourth wave, then bears would probably like to see it end shy of 4093. (There's a gap near 4070, we'll see if the market wants to aim for that or not.)

SPX then ran to 4078 and reversed, right in the range bears needed it to, which keeps the micro fourth wave very much on the table:

Bear v, were it to materialize directly, only needs to break the low at 3928, but if it can sustain a breakdown there, then 3820-45 would certainly be within the range of possibility for bear v.

NYA is in a similar position with its micro count, and a new low there would strongly hint at the decline having become an impulsive turn lower from the proposed (C) wave high:

In conclusion, bears stopped the market just a few points beyond my eyeballed 4070 target, now they just need to push below 3928 SPX to complete a probable impulsive decline.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: 10 Months in Purgatory

If you've been finding this market somewhat frustrating, this is to be expected given that SPX has now been stuck in a trading range since May of 2022.  On the plus side, you can at least be thankful you haven't had to write about it three times a week for every week of those 10 months.  It's the little things in life that make it all worthwhile!

So, not surprisingly, there's still not a lot to add to the last ~125 updates or whatever it's been.  Last update noted:

SPX did officially capture the red trend line, so it can bounce up to break last month's high from here, or it can bounce in a small fourth wave and then go on to form a fifth wave, which would give us a larger impulse down.

SPX indeed bounced but gave no indication yet whether this is a fourth wave or the start of a return to last month's high.  If the current rally is a micro fourth wave, then bears would probably like to see it end shy of 4093.  (There's a gap near 4070, we'll see if the market wants to aim for that or not.)

We can express both counts on one chart (below):

Not much to add beyond that.  At some point, the market will get beyond this trading range and things will get interesting again, but until then, trade safe.

SPX Update

As I wrote on February 27, the "easy" part was/is over for now.  While the near-term pattern was pretty clear for a while there, it has (as noted then) reached its inflection, and inflection points are a little tougher when the larger pattern is also unresolved, which is the case here.

SPX did officially capture the red trend line, so it can bounce up to break last month's high from here, or it can bounce in a small fourth wave and then go on to form a fifth wave, which would give us a larger impulse down:

Since inflection zones present a sort of crossroads, last update talked about the potential for a complex correction; today I want to mention one more option, just because it's there.  We won't worry too much about this just yet.

In conclusion, SPX is still within the inflection zone that it reached a few days ago.  Bears need another new low to have something resembling an impulsive decline, but there's no guarantee they'll get one, so it's not a bad idea to stay nimble until this resolves.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

Since last update, SPX bounced a bit, but retraced a substantial portion of that yesterday.  Whether this will evolve into a more complex near-term correction is unclear at the moment, so I want to call attention to the potential of a larger pattern.  This isn't a prediction yet, just something to keep in mind if the decline continues:

Of course, before the above pattern can be seriously considered, bears will first need to sustain a breakdown at the red trend line:

Nothing to add to the next chart: 

And finally, big picture, blue 2 and red 2 are both still on the table:

In conclusion, bulls haven't been able to get much going so far, and if this doesn't turn into one of the more complex corrections shown/discussed in the first chart/first paragraph (the first paragraph alludes to a very near-term potential that could run back toward the 4080ish zone before declining again), it pays to remember that once all the hemming and hawing is over, the market is expected to enter a third wave decline.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: "Easy" Part is Over for Now

In Friday's update (which was published when the S&P futures were trading just off of Thursday's high), I wrote that I suspected that SPX needed another new low, which it reached at the open.  As I also wrote, that low would be an inflection point.  I wrote this because that low is potentially three complete waves down in SPX from 4195, which means we shouldn't entirely discount the possibility that bulls could regain near-term (or larger) control from here.

What bears would like to see now is a bounce in a larger fourth wave (which could take a week or longer to unfold), then another new low in a fifth wave.

SPX came up a hair short of the red trend line, but was in the ballpark:

In conclusion, the "easy" part is over for now, and I can no longer promise more new lows -- we'll just have to see how it develops for a bit, to determine if the market wants to form a potential impulse down, or if that whole decline was merely a correction.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: New Lows Confirmed -- Now What?

In last update, I was of the opinion that SPX was not done to the downside and that it would need to unwind some additional lows, which it has since done.  That said, I'm still leaning toward it needing at least one more.

No sustained breakdown at the black trend line as of yet, so that's why I can't be 100% on the above read and mentioned that Thursday's low does qualify as a potential inflection (though, again, I'm leaning toward it failing):

Other than that, nothing else to add to the prior update.  Trade safe.

NYA and SPX: Confirmed

On February 10, I wrote: 

[B]ears are still very much in the near-term game here, and normally one would expect some downside follow-through to the pattern so far (though worth being aware that it's three waves down from 4176 so far, which, 9 out of 10 times, means it either needs to become five down, or it will turn into an expanded flat that runs back toward 4176 before heading lower later; 1 out of 10 times it's something weird like a double three).

On February 15, I discussed INDU's noisy pattern and that it had given me a little doubt, but wrote that "my initial instinct last update was that SPX had only formed three waves down and was thus likely to rally and return to the low, and I'll stick with my first read for now."

On February 17, I wrote:  "[N]o change, except to add that there's now a possible micro bear nest in the near term pattern."

Given how wacky this market is, and how confused the majority of participants are, I have to say that I'm rather pleased that all of these reads were on-target, given the current environment.

SPX has now reached the first downside trend line, which I discussed a couple weeks ago:

On the chart above, I mention that it "looks reasonably likely" that SPX will ultimately reach the red trend line; the chart below discusses why I said that:

Finally, NYA reaching its target zone was one of the things that helped all the prior analysis work, to get us looking the right direction at the reversal:

In conclusion, SPX appears to need further downside before it can even consider forming a decent low -- and while it's a bit early to say for certain "how low," I suspect the red trend line at the minimum, and am on the verge of leaning toward the 3750-67 zone.  Also, do keep in mind the larger wave position here:  Again, it's too early to say without a larger impulse down, but it's worth knowing that it's at least within the realm of possibility that SPX has topped blue wave (2) and is headed much lower from here.  Trade safe.