SPX Update: SPX Nears Downside Target

Since last update, the market has continued to trend lower (as expected at every time frame in recent updates), so still not much to add to the last few weeks of updates.  First up is last update's near term chart:

Next, SPX has finally broken below the blue trend line, and was rejected on the first attempt to overcome it from below:

Big picture, no change -- all roads have ultimately led to Rome in recent updates, and Rome is finally now within site:

In conclusion, weeks ago I suggested that SPX was heading toward a retest of the yearly low, and SPX is finally now within spitting distance of that low.  Keep in mind that "retests" of major lows and highs are zones, not exact to-the-penny things.  So far, this has the feel of a market that is having a hard time finding buyers, but that can always change as the low approaches -- though whether it will change or not is unknown at present.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Fed Day

SPX traded in a circle yesterday, so still not much to add to the prior few updates.  On the chart below, I sketched a short-term path that looks more than 50% likely, but is nowhere near 100%, so don't get married to it:

Beyond that, we are still in the first near-term inflection zone.

No change to the big picture:

In conclusion, not much to add to the past few updates.  Today is a Fed day, which usually means whipping and sawing until the announcement, then some more whipping and sawing after the announcement.  The market is already pricing in an ~84% chance of a 3/4 hike.  In other news, Russia is ramping up its military effort, and Putin made veiled threats against NATO, alluding to Russia's nuclear stockpile.  As I've written repeatedly, this is (in my opinion), a generational bear market (that link is to the lengthy piece I published on April 18) -- so while I'd normally ignore such things, this is the type of rare, devastating cycle where the worst should not be entirely discounted, though the cycle still has years to run.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Little Hope for Bulls

Not much happened on Friday, so there's still no change to the outlook

Near-term, the market still has options that could delay the inevitable bearish resolution of this pattern, but there isn't much to suggest any meaningful hope for intermediate or long-term bulls.  In my opinion, this bear market still has a long way to go.

As we can see on the chart below, SPX is into a near-term inflection zone:

The count that would allow bulls a near-term reprieve is shown in black on the chart below.  There's simply no way to predict complex corrections, though, so the market may just ignore that option if it so chooses:

In conclusion, while bulls might find a near-term respite if they can manage a complex correction, there isn't much meaningful bullish hope that can be drawn from the current charts.  Big picture, if we are indeed entering a third wave, the market could be setting itself up for a classic October crash.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Material Change

The market continues to perform as expected, so let's get right into the charts.

The simple trend line chart:

And no change to the intermediate chart:

In conclusion, the market has a couple ways it could delay the (what I view as) inevitable resolution, but I remain long-term bearish, as I have virtually all year.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Market Rejected from Noted Inflection Zone

Last update indicated 4100-4121 as a possible inflection zone that could complete the rally, and the market was strongly rejected from that zone.  In fact, INDU has already made a new low:

As I see it, SPX basically has two possibilities:  Collapse now or collapse later.

On this next chart, SPX topped directly on last update's first "2/B?" label, so I had to move it up slightly so it wouldn't be covering the peak:

In conclusion, the market does have the option for a complex correction here, but I continue to believe, as I have since August 19, that the top is in.  Be aware that the most bearish potential here is for us now to already be within a nested third wave -- and nested third waves are often "waterfall" or outright "crash" territory, so bulls should be exceptionally cautious heading forward.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Material Change

Not much to add since last update, so let's get right into the charts:

From a wave perspective, this could still be a second wave or a lower degree fourth wave (the fourth wave stays on the table until SPX price overlaps the thick black horizontal on the chart below).

In conclusion, last update noted that if SPX could sustain a breakout of the purple channel (first chart), then 4100ish would be next resistance, and futures have already reached the cash equivalent zone, which stretches up to about 4121, so we'll see if this area offers any resistance.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Bounce

Last update speculated that the market was in "bounce or break territory," and bounce it did, holding the support zone we'd discussed several times prior.  This creates an interesting structure wherein the current bounce could either be a large, higher-degree 2/B, or a small, lower-degree fourth wave:

On the chart above, for ease of viewing, I simply labeled both options as "2/B?"  The following chart helps illustrate how it might play if it's the lower "2/B?" on the above chart:

Now, again, please keep in mind that the above is not a "prediction" per se, it's simply one path the market could take if the current bounce is a low-degree fourth wave.  If SPX sustains a breakout over the purple trend line, then the red horizontal may come into play next, and the rally could go on to later form two legs up.

In conclusion, bulls did manage a bounce from support, but whether this is to be short-lived, or a larger corrective rally, remains to be seen.  We'll see how bulls manage the upcoming resistance zones.  Trade safe.