SPX Update

SPX continued its range-bound tendencies for the entire week last week, leaving the near-term cloudy with a chance of rampant inflation (99% chance, so buy extra umbrellas while they're still affordable).  Accordingly, I've attempted to draw up the most "straightforward" (meaning: the market always reserves the right to morph into something more complex) of the near-term bull and bear options:

No change to the big picture:

In conclusion, I suspect we may finally get some near-term resolution in the next couple of sessions -- the market just has that feel to it right now.  The two most apparent options are shown on the first chart -- but again, the market can turn into a more complex structure if it wants, so best to stay nimble.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

The market has remained range-bound since Monday, meaning there's still not much to add to Monday's extensive update.

Once again, I was unable to update the COMPQ chart without Stockcharts deleting all my prior annotations; it appears their commitment to the New Cruelty policy will continue until [date redacted], so just SPX today:

In conclusion, range-bound market this week, so not much to add since Monday.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Part of the New Cruelty

Not much has changed since Monday's extended update, except to note that COMPQ did overlap its first key level.  I'd publish an updated COMPQ chart, but every time I touch that chart, Stockcharts deletes all my old annotations and makes me start from scratch, and it's just not worth the effort sometimes.  Refer back to last update if you missed the chart (COMPQ near-term).

Instead, we'll look at SPX, which has not touched its key overlap yet:

In conclusion, beyond that, not much to add to Monday's extensive update.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, TRAN: As in December, I Remain "Long-Term Bearish Until Proven Otherwise"

This weekend, I was asked where I stand, so I want to reiterate my stance, which has not changed since December, and which is best stated on this chart (from January):

I keep trying to drive home the idea that the near-term just doesn't matter much here.  As I mentioned elsewhere, it's probably not wise to get too hung up picking up pennies on the track when a freight train is bearing down on you at full speed.  

So once again, as clearly as I can state this:  Since December 2021, I have been, and remain, bearish until proven otherwise.

Along those lines, I was combing through my chartbook this weekend and came across the chart below, which was first published on May 1, 2020 within the piece "Is America Approaching the End of a Supercycle Rally?"

Here's the chart as first published (see link above), nearly two years ago:

Here's the chart now, with nothing moved:

Ignoring the fact that both the timing and price are completely ridiculous, that chart helps illustrate why the near-term just isn't where our focus should be right now.

Also, I'm leaning more and more toward this being Supercycle V instead of III, so make of that what you will.

Nevertheless, here's a more "optimistic" option, via TRAN;

A closer long-term view on SPX reveals what bulls need to do to get back in the game here:

Near-term, if the idea that there are only three waves into the low is correct, then the primary options are "bearish now or bearish later":

SPX likewise stalled short of overlapping wave A/1, leaving both the "bearish now" and the "bearish later" options on the table:

Finally, a reminder of how big a Supercycle wave can be:

In conclusion, the new low last week does help bears and brings the odds that a long-term bear market has begun closer into their favor.  Bulls aren't entirely out of the game yet, but their chances are dwindling.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ, Gold

Yesterday, SPX gapped down, then spent the rest of the session clawing higher.  As the charts will show, this could be the start of a larger rally, but there are a couple hurdles for bulls to clear first.  I'll let the charts do the talking from here.

First up, COMPQ:

INDU:

SPX:

And a bonus chart of Gold:

In conclusion, the previously mentioned ambiguity at the most recent swing high (to B wave or not to B-wave, that is the question) makes things a little complicated now, but that B-wave option is not dead yet.  Bulls will likely face their first test in today's session (the fourth wave inflection discussed on COMPQ and implied on SPX), which may give us more clues.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Downside Targets Captured

Yesterday, COMPQ and SPX both captured their respective target/inflection zones.  Below is COMPQ's chart from 2/16:

Here's that same chart today:

In a similar way, SPX tagged its most recent 3/C label:

In conclusion, recent downside targets have been captured, now we find out if the market intends to turn this decline into an impulse, or keep it corrective and put together a larger bounce.  In other words, the "easy" money may be over for the moment, and it's up to the market to declare its next intentions.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: No Material Change

Note:  The Forum is back up and running

Not much to add to the past few updates, so short and sweet again today, starting with SPX:

COMPQ seems on track, barring a more complex correction to the current micro wave (a more complex correction could play out similar to SPX's shown "or 4" option):

Other than that, not much to add to the past few updates.  Trade safe.