SPX, INDU, NDX: No Suprises Today

Friday's update warned that it was time for bears to be cautious, and, indeed, it appears we'll have a significantly higher open this morning.

Keep in mind that we're still inside the Great Noise Zone of 2015, so there are a lot of near-term options inside this range.  The preferred option of the past few weeks probably has to continue to be given at least slight preference, and that's for a textbook "double retrace" that will now head back toward 2115 SPX:

Worth noting that the market reached a perfect 1.618 extension of the proposed wave A, which is often where a C-wave will bottom:

Keep in mind that if we are now currently in a C wave rally, as shown by the bull count on the first chart, then it will likely be fairly relentless for a while.  It's wise to wait until the target zone is reached, and/or we begin seeing impulsive declines before trying to go against it for more than a scalp.  And frankly, even scalping will be difficult against the trend on a C-wave.

This next chart is a bit ahead of the curve, and isn't relevant if we're in a second wave (as shown in the bear count).  But if we do indeed test/break the 2115 zone, then one option for an extremely complex pattern opens up -- as is shown below via INDU:

Finally, NDX also hints at the possibility of a C-wave rally.  The bear count here is the same: for a second wave, that could end roughly where shown by the label:

In conclusion, the intermediate picture remains bearish, but the near-term picture is a bit up for grabs at the moment.  If we get back to 2115+, then, the closer we get to the all-time-high, the more actionable it becomes (not trading advice!).  If we start to see impulsive declines from the bear 2 zone, then we might consider the possibility that the picture is even more bearish than shown.

Last update, I briefly covered the bull option, via INDU -- that option remains wholly viable, of course, so it's wise for bears to continue with a cautious approach; in the event that we reclaim the all-time high, then we'll have to give the bulls a bit more airtime.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Time for Bear Caution

First off, I apologize for the brevity of the recent updates.  I promise a more detailed update this weekend.

Let's get right to the charts.  The last few days have been wonderfully-profitable for forum members, as I've been pointing out the turn zones on the board in real-time-- and (sorry to toot my own horn) have nailed most of the them quite accurately.

At this point, we're into a major inflection zone, since SPX has now completed the requirements for a double-retrace:

INDU is in a larger inflection zone:

The bear option for INDU is that we're in the process of forming a massive nest of bearish first and second waves.  Watch for sustained trade beneath long-term support for that option to become a significant potential.

In conclusion, we're at a major inflection zone for both the near-term, and the intermediate-term, as outlined on the charts.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Market Reaches Inflection Point

On July 31, I published the following projection chart for INDU:

Here's how INDU's chart looks now, with the actual price action:

SPX below.  The bull count is a complete ABC decline (blue abc).  Below the 3/c level, and we're probably looking in the vicinity of black C as next potential support.

In conclusion, this is an important inflection point.  So far, INDU has tracked perfectly, which always makes me at least a little nervous.  The next session or two should be revealing.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Ingredients in Place, Can Bears Make It Happen?

Last update projected an opening pop to a marginal new high in INDU that would be sold, and that's exactly what we got.  In a perfect world, to keep things simple, bears would like to see Friday's highs hold in INDU and SPX.  Another marginal new high would be okay, but the near-term bear counts would be cast into shadow if this were to occur.

We'll start with INDU:

INDU's hourly chart:

Below is a super-simple chart of SPX:

And finally, the SPX 1-minute chart does support the bear case:

In conclusion, while we can't be certain that a reversal began on Friday, bears do have all the correct ingredients in place.  There's not much else to be said.  Trade safe.

INDU Update: Market Enters Resistance

Yesterday saw the rally finally pause, but bulls bought it right back up again (or shorts did.  Someone did!).  Today, we're getting into territory where there could be some measure of resistance.  I'm going to let two charts from INDU do all the talking today:

And a closer look at the potential micro structure:

SPX would be expected to follow a similar path (preliminary approximate target for B-down in SPX would be 2070-80).  Unless the rally is going to tack on a fifth wave extension (which we can't predict in advance), then we should be in the ballpark where a correction would begin, ideally after an opening pop to a new high as shown on INDU's chart.  Trade safe.

SPX, RUT, HYG:TLT: RUT Captures Target

Short on time, so I'll let the charts do ALL the talking:

SPX:

HYG:TLT:

In conclusion, recent targets have been captured, which means that, presently, the near-term picture is a little muddy.  We can't know exactly what the market will do every step of the way, after all, and have to content ourselves with those moments when we do know.  Nothing has changed regarding the intermediate picture, which still modestly favors the bears.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, RUT: No Material Change to the Near-term or Intermediate-term

Last update concluded:

The charts are suggesting that the bears aren't done yet, and RUT in particular looks like it wants new lows.  While a bounce wouldn't be unreasonable, I would expect the next bounce to be sold.  The bear case will remain preferred unless the recent highs are reclaimed, or until such time as the downward wave structure appears complete.

Friday's session later saw a relentless decline, and RUT ended the session by making a new low:

 SPX reached its if/then target zone of 2082 +/-, but the decline doesn't look finished:

Finally, a lot of folks have been asking for an update to the intermediate picture -- but there really isn't much to add since I first went out on a limb with this, way back in March:

In conclusion, there's nothing in the structure yet to suggest bears are done, and new lows appear reasonably likely across the board.  Trade safe.