SPX, RUT, NYA: Bears Take the Wheel

The market took a bit of a beating since last update, and we now have what appear to be impulsive declines across several markets.  This suggests that the downward trend will continue for at least one more wave -- and possibly a lot more.

Let's start with RUT, which may be the most damaging chart to the various bull cases:

NYA also continues to look near-term bearish -- and perhaps intermediate bearish as well:

Finally, just to play devil's advocate, SPX presents one way to view things bullishly:

In conclusion, the charts are suggesting that the bears aren't done yet, and RUT in particular looks like it wants new lows.  While a bounce wouldn't be unreasonable, I would expect the next bounce to be sold.  The bear case will remain preferred unless the recent highs are reclaimed, or until such time as the downward wave structure appears complete.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, NDX: Bears Keep Hope Alive, for Now

Last update ended with: 

In conclusion, there's still no clear predictive pattern that's emerged from the noise zone, but we are now in a resistance zone, so the market may react to that...

And lo and behold, the old English saying "lo and behold" found its way into the update!  Also, the market did react to the resistance zone (though, ironically, BKX failed to live up to its advertised impulse from last update).  This keeps the bear options alive for now.

Let's get right to the charts, because I'm short on time.  First is NYA:

SPX:

And a couple zones to watch in NDX:

In conclusion, bears have kept their hopes alive for the time being, and anyone who acted on my "not trading advice" against the all-time high is in a decent position to protect profits heading forward.  Trade safe. 

SPX, INDU, NYA, BKX Updates: No Title is a Good Title

Last update noted that markets were approaching prior resistance, but that we had yet to see any downward impulse waves to signal a turn.  After that update was published, SPX gapped open and was immediately met with decent selling pressure... but the relevant conundrum is shown on the chart below:

Of note, BKX does appear to have an impulsive decline: 

NYA's chart takes a further look at a near-term bear option (with at least the potential for a bigger bear option): (continued, next page)

NYA, INDU, SPX: Markets Approach Resistance

Since last update, the rally has continued largely unabated.  The rally has the hallmarks of an impulse wave, which likely either makes it a fifth wave headed to new highs (as discussed last update), or the c-wave of a complex flat. 

SPX is 10 points off the all-time-highs, so risk levels are more clearly defined in this zone -- however, we have yet to see any decent-sized downward impulse waves:

INDU is a bit farther off from its highs:

Finally, the NYA chart presents a bigger picture view, in the event that this is a fifth wave headed to new highs:

In conclusion, there have been no downward impulse waves yet to suggest a top, but most indices are approaching resistance, so that could generate a reaction.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, INDU, TRAN: Targets Captured Across the Board

First off, I have finally completed my personal-life-dictated hiatus (at least for the foreseeable future), and posts will henceforth return to their regular schedule.  I'd like to again thank my readers for bearing with me, and particularly thank those of you who sent support during the past several weeks (you know who you are!).  You guys and gals are truly the best.

With that behind us, let's get to some charts.  We'll start with the Dow Jones Transportation Average Ordinary Mediocre (TRAN), which recently captured its preferred target (8000) from April (half a million years ago):

Last update, I stuck my neck out a bit and only published downside targets, with no alternate upside targets.  Hopefully it paid off for readers, as all three published indices (including S&P 500 (SPX)) then went on to capture their targets.

INDU also captured its target from last update, and now presents the same noise-driven ambiguity as SPX: (continued, next page)

Publication Note

I apologize for my extended hiatus due to personal issues.  Publication will most definitely return to normal early next week -- as will forum registration approvals. 

Of some note, SPX captured its first downside target (2039-45) from last update.  INDU has also captured its first target.  More next week.

SPX, INDU, NYA: Market Slips on Greece

Long-time readers know that I believe news is noise -- but I just couldn't resist the "grease" pun in the title.

Amazingly, since last update, the market has moved only 4 points on a closing basis.  Before going further, I would like to preface this update with the note that my personal life has not quite returned to "normal" (whatever that is) yet, so I'm going to let the charts do most of the talking.  I would also like to most sincerely thank those of you who have sent support and well-wishes, it's all very much appreciated!

We'll start by taking a look at INDU, which seems to have the clearest chart.  Sustained trade north of the B/2 high would, of course, call the preferred count into question:

Next is SPX:

And finally, NYA hints that a sustained breakdown would ultimately have a decent shot at testing the 2015 lows:

In conclusion, the pattern in INDU appears to suggest further downside over the near-term, but the bigger picture pattern on SPX may be hinting that any downside follow-through from here may ultimately prove to simply be a correction (though it could well be a scary one) with new all-time highs to follow after it completes.  I'll track this as it unfolds, to try and identify the next pivot point.  Trade safe.