SPX, NYA, Nasdaq: SPX Captures Three Straight Targets -- What Next?

In Wednesday's update, we examined the evidence for the bull and bear cases, and concluded that the S&P 500 (SPX) would rally over the near-term, but that bears had the edge to see new lows over the intermediate term.  The near-term upside targets were 1860-65, then 1870-74; while 1874 was noted as a key pivot.  Both upside targets were captured during Wednesday's session.  On Thursday, SPX reached an early session high of 1872.53, a point shy of the pivot, before being crushed by an onslaught of sellers.  It's now reached new lows, but there are no indications yet that the decline is over.

I expect a trip into the second downside target zone (1822-28, as published April 7), and odds are reasonable that we'll ultimately see even lower prices.

It seems like suddenly everyone has jumped on the bear bandwagon -- and that always makes me inclined to stay on my toes for an unexpected rally, since the market "wants" to inflict pain on traders who are late to a party.  Nevertheless, there are no technical signals yet for a rally -- but the first thing I'll be watching this session is the new crash channel in SPX.  A little later, we'll also examine some ways the market might make things harder on the newly-converted bears.

Let's take a look at the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ), and also revisit a paragraph from Monday's update:

As I noted on Friday, the higher beta indices like COMPQ and Russell 2000 (RUT) weren't playing along with the SPX rally.  That's sometimes a warning that sentiment is shifting toward risk-off.  Looking forward, COMPQ's current pattern has a markedly bearish appearance, and is suggestive of a nested third wave decline ("nested" meaning a third wave within a third wave).  This chart tells me I'm not in a hurry to "buy the dip" just yet, because there is still significant downside potential present.

As of this moment, there has been nothing to negate that nested third wave potential. 

So the nested third wave remains alive and well and speaks to waterfall potential.  And yet, as I mentioned earlier, I'm bothered by all the Johnny-come-lately bears.  I approach the market a bit like I'd approach a chess match, which means I try to think several moves ahead of my opponents.  I try to express those strategies as best I can in these updates, while at the same time trying not to overwhelm and confuse readers.  Frankly my approach is a lot simpler in real-time, since as the market moves, it often reveals itself rather plainly.

In any case, I want readers to be aware of a couple additional "chess-match" moves the market may make here, so that readers can stay ahead of their opponents as well. 

One of the questions I indirectly raised earlier is:  "How might the market punish the newly-converted bears?"  There are, of course, no guarantees that it will, but it's a strong possibility.  So, instead of cluttering up the SPX chart, I've used the NYSE Composite (NYA) to illustrate two possibilities for market curveballs.

The first curveball potential is a surprise intermediate bottom in wave C.  C-waves typically reach approximate equality with A-waves, as shown by the green measured-move boxes on the chart below.

The second curveball potential is for a quick drop that captures the SPX target 2 zone, which is followed by a retracement rally (to punish the new bears).  I've shown this option in black on the chart below -- if this plays out, expect SPX to follow a similar path.  Note there is absolutely no technical reason for me to consider such an outcome, this is merely based on trying to determine what might cause the greatest amount of pain to both the bulls and the bears at the current juncture.  The black path would also leave the greatest number of options open, which is another thing the market often likes to do. 

Here I'd again caution readers to watch the crash channel on SPX, and thus not entertain these other options as long as SPX remains within that channel.

In conclusion, it's likely that SPX will capture the second target zone of April 7, and it presently appears to be reasonable probability that the decline will ultimately continue beyond that zone.  Considerable downside potential remains in the current patterns, and until bulls do something to negate that potential, this market continues to warrant a cautious stance.  Have a great weekend, and trade safe.

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SPX, Nasdaq, NYA: Bull Case, Bear Case, and Determining Who Has the Ball

The easy money's over for now.

Trying to anticipate what the market will do next involves vast amounts of forensic detective work.  Today, we'll try to determine whether bulls or bears have more evidence on their side.  Sometimes, the evidence is reasonably clear, which means future outcomes can be anticipated with reasonable probability.  Other times, the evidence for the bull and bear cases reaches a seeming equilibrium, which makes it difficult or impossible to come up with high-probability projections.

Last week, I felt the market would break higher from the March trading range, rally briefly, and then whipsaw, catching both bulls and bears by surprise.  Those things came to pass.  Then on Monday, I discussed what I felt were the first high-probability targets for the S&P 500 (SPX), at 1834-42, and Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ), at 4030-60.  Both of those targets have now been captured.

All that was the "easy" part.  As I noted on Monday, the target zones I published also represent inflection points, which means those are price zones where reversals become possible.  Today, we'll look at the evidence for bulls and bears and try to determine who has more weight in the market right now.

First off, let's talk about the bull evidence:

1.  SPX has reached the 50 day moving average, and, as is typical, there has been some buying around that level.  The 50 dma is a lagging indicator, but I pay attention to it because other traders pay attention to it, which means the price action often becomes heated near that zone.  So far, we can view the bounce at the 50-dma, at least in SPX (Nasdaq is another matter), as mildly bullish.  Considering that the 50-dma crosses a major price support zone, though, it's hard to read too much into the bounce yet.

2.  The Volatility Index (VIX) formed a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday.  VIX down usually means equities up, so we can put that in the plus column for bulls as well, at least over the near-term.

3.  There's an Elliott Wave pattern called an expanded flat, which has now reached the minimum downside expectations in SPX.  Every large impulsive (five wave) decline since 2012 has been wave-c of an expanded flat, so we have to stay alert to that potential here as well.  This isn't really "bullish," exactly, any more than a potential head and shoulders that hasn't actually broken down yet is "bearish" -- it just exists as a possibility that has to be respected.  Let's look at that in more detail.

In an expanded flat in an uptrend, the market rallies to new highs in an irregular b-wave, then declines to break the a-wave low in wave-c.  SPX has completed the minimum requirements for such a pattern.  However, the NYSE Composite (NYA) has not yet broken its (potential) a-wave low, but has broken its uptrend line -- so we have to put this index as a plus-mark in the bear column for the time being, and it suggests new lows still on the horizon for the broader market.

Let's back away from the near-term view for a moment and take a look at the weekly chart of SPX.  Even though bulls have the uptrend still in their favor, there were two fairly strong trend reversal signals which came at long-term resistance.  Signals can go unrealized, of course, but until SPX breaks 1897, this chart probably argues in favor of the bears.

The Nasdaq Composite captured its target, then reversed.  This behavior does keep bull options alive, though the overall structure presently hints at new lows -- so this has to be placed in the "neutral" column.  Near-term, a bounce would be reasonable, so we'll have to rely on real-time feedback heading forward.

Finally, the hourly SPX chart does suggest at least a near-term rally.  The bounce out of the captured target zone appears impulsive, suggesting at least one more leg up over the near term.  I've outlined targets on the chart:

In conclusion, it's difficult to get too far ahead of a market like this one.  Near-term, the weight of evidence tilts toward the bulls and suggests a bounce is due.  Intermediate-term, the evidence slightly tilts in the bears' favor -- but since the bulls have the long-term trend in their favor, it's a close call.  For the time being, I probably have to give a slight intermediate edge to the bears, but I'm not stubbornly set on that by any means.  As I noted, the easy money is over for the moment -- so we'll be wise to observe how the market reacts to this first bounce opportunity, then we'll examine the new evidence in the next update.  Trade safe.

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SPX, Nasdaq, and USB: Why I'm in No Hurry to "Buy the Dip" Yet

Friday saw an ugly bearish reversal day, which likely caught most traders wrong-footed (the majority generally have to be looking the wrong direction for solid market moves to happen in the first place).  Bearish reversal days thus typically portend further selling ahead, since many traders who were trapped at the highs will look to unload longs into the next bounce, and this creates overhead resistance.

I wrote about this setup on March 31, and added this on Wednesday, April 2:

If the market is indeed plotting the head-fake whipsaw I talked about on Monday, then we're likely to see a significant sell-off afterwards, as most traders will be caught wrong-footed.  This is because classic technical analysis would see a breakout here as very bullish, with targets in the mid-to-high 1900's. 

The above paragraph also indirectly describes one of the reasons I feel Elliott Wave Theory is an invaluable tool for trading and market analysis.  Back on March 31, Elliott Wave allowed me to project that the S&P 500 (SPX) would likely rally directly out of the range, in a false-breakout, which would then reverse (See: SPX and USB:  Equities May Be Plotting a Head-fake Whipsaw).  Without Elliott Wave, I probably wouldn't have been able to foresee all that -- especially from the vantage point presented before the breakout had even occurred.

Being aware of the likelihood of a pending reversal can be invaluable for protecting profits on existing positions, and/or for avoiding badly-timed entries on new positions.  Of course, one must carefully balance projections with real-time market feedback, and continue to respond to changing conditions in a fluid manner.  The "danger" of projecting the future is that one can become too rigid in one's expectations, and thus fail to recognize either opportunities or perils in the present moment.  But ultimately, "forewarned is forearmed" as they say -- so I think if one can balance foreknowledge of likely potentials with a present-based trading approach (and, of course, solid risk management), then it creates many more opportunities for protection and expansion of capital.

Moving on to the current charts, I'd like to start off with a detailed look at the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ).  As I noted on Friday, the higher beta indices like COMPQ and Russell 2000 (RUT) weren't playing along with the SPX rally.  That's sometimes a warning that sentiment is shifting toward risk-off.  Looking forward, COMPQ's current pattern has a markedly bearish appearance, and is suggestive of a nested third wave decline ("nested" meaning a third wave within a third wave).  This chart tells me I'm not in a hurry to "buy the dip" just yet, because there is still significant downside potential present.

In SPX, so far bears have accomplished everything they needed to, short of a sustained break of the black trend line.  The near-term outlook will remain bearish until either 1898 is claimed to the upside, or until there are signs of a bottom.   

Notice SPX is currently in a near-term crash channel (the thin black channel) -- the first step for bulls is to break out over the upper boundary, but usually the first break of a channel this steep is merely a deceleration of the near-term trend, as opposed to an immediate reversal.  So, more often than not, the first breakout is then sold to new lows.  Consequently, there is almost no reason to bet against the near-term trend when the market's still within such a channel -- so again, I see no reason to be in a hurry to get long, as of this exact moment.

Looking forward on SPX, the target zones also represent inflection points, which means we'll be wise to observe how the market reacts to them (assuming they're reached, of course!).  One ugly day can't tell us if this decline will be an intermediate decline or not, though it does have all the ingredients for one.  Intermediate decline or not, on a near-term basis, this drop shows no signs yet of an impending bottom; so I think any pending bottoms will need to come from lower prices.

Not shown today is the NYSE Composite (NYA):  On Friday, NYA rallied into its median channel line, then reversed from that line, almost to-the-penny.  I'd noted on the chart that we should watch that zone carefully, because "fifth waves often stall near median channel lines" (just another reason why my first love in charting is still Elliott Wave Theory).

In place of NYA, which appears it will follow a similar path as SPX and would thus be redundant today, we'll take another look at the 30-year bond (USB).  USB has reached a near-term inflection point for wave b/(2), meaning the long-bond appears likely to have bottomed in the recent session.  If so, it's now embarking on wave c/(3).  Interestingly, if there's a breakout over the dashed red trend line, then classic technical analysis would view USB as a flag pattern -- and the target for this classic TA flag pattern now aligns with the 138 Elliott Wave target from February 20 (more aggressive TA methodology would actually suggest a target beyond 139).

Stocks and bonds have demonstrated an inverse correlation at many points in the past, and have shown this correlation with some consistency since 2012 -- so a rally in bonds would hint at trouble for equities.  The key for bond bulls, of course, is a breakout over the red resistance line; while a breakdown of the recent lows would suggest a more complex correction still unfolding for b/(2).

In conclusion, Friday's reversal came within a couple points of the projected reversal zone, and was strong enough to suggest that the head-fake whipsaw thesis was indeed correct.  Last week thus made an excellent bull trap, and almost certainly caught the majority of traders looking the wrong direction, since the upside breakout from March's extended range-bound consolidation is something many trading systems would have viewed as bullish, especially in light of the strong bull run that preceded it.

In my experience, trader psychology is subject to the laws of inertia -- so the initial tendency of traders who were bullish last week will be to remain bullish into the decline this week, possibly leading to premature dip-buying.  Regarding this psychological component, I'd like to quickly refer back to something I wrote on Wednesday, April 2:

I think one of the goals of trading ranges is to wear everyone out -- and in doing so, ranges sometimes serve the function of making traders a bit sloppy afterwards.  While the range is underway, everyone becomes hyper-focused on the near-term charts; then some feel thrilled or relieved when the range finally breaks.  Trend followers sometimes even become strangely complacent afterwards, due to the emotional release of stored tension that was generated by the range.

Based on some of the trader talk I heard last week, I suspect there was a lot of "release of tension" complacency in the wake of the breakout (sometimes this "I weathered the correction!" psychological relief even reaches extremes, and manifests as arrogance).  Thus it appears there was significant complacency at the all-time high, which means many traders were positioned "long and wrong" on Friday -- and that makes this a great setup for a continued sell-off.  In the meantime, we'll rely on real-time feedback from the price charts to tell us when buying the dip might again see better odds.  Trade safe.

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SPX and NYA: The Interesting Headline Generator is broken again...

On Thursday, the S&P 500 (SPX) made another new all-time high early in the session, then reversed and tested support near 1883 before recovering to end the day slightly down.  Even though yesterday's candlestick was technically a minor bearish reversal candle, I don't think much can be read into it yet, because so far support has held.  That said, sometimes these types of minor bearish candles function as early warning signs of a pending reversal from higher prices.

Meanwhile, although SPX and the Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) grab most of the headlines, higher beta indices like Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) are still trading below their March highs.  It's possible we'll begin to see markets even-out a bit now that the Fed is hitting stride with the QE taper, and 2014 may end up having a different character than the frothy 2013 market.

Overall, there's been no material change in the outlook since Wednesday, other than to note that we can finally take the diagonal off the table since SPX broke through 1887.  I've also updated the near-term pivots to reflect the latest price action.  As a result of there being no change from Wednesday's more detailed analysis, today's update will require few words and I'll let the charts do most of the talking.  (If you missed Wednesday's update, please refer to SPX and NYA:  Equities Face Long-term Resistance).

SPX still faces long-term resistance in the upside target zone:

The NYSE Composite (NYA) has reached the first upside target zone.  Incidentally, if you're wondering why I frequently chart NYA, it's because this index is a much better representation of the total market than SPX or INDU.  Generally speaking, SPX and INDU tell folks if their blue chip portfolio is gaining or losing, but NYA tells us the health of the overall market. 

In conclusion, beyond updating the near-term pivots, there's very little to add to Wednesday's update.  It's worth noting that today is Non-Farm Payroll, which sometimes brings volatility.  Trade safe.

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SPX and NYA Updates: Long-Term Resistance

Monday's update anticipated that the S&P 500 (SPX) was headed directly to new highs, and confidence in that view was added during Monday's session, when SPX broke, back-tested, and held 1867.  Tuesday's session closed at a new all-time high.

In today's update, we'll discuss the bull and bear cases and the zones to watch for each. 

On Friday, I wrote: "Due to the larger trend, this is probably bears' last shot to break these markets down, so any strong bounces from here would likely lead to new highs."  That now applies to bulls in reverse (sans larger trend, of course). 

If the market is indeed plotting the head-fake whipsaw I talked about on Monday, then we're likely to see a significant sell-off afterwards, as most traders will be caught wrong-footed.  This is because classic technical analysis would see a breakout here as very bullish, with targets in the mid-to-high 1900's.  After we examine the preferred count and the arguments in its favor, we'll also delve into those more bullish potentials in a bit more detail.

The preferred count continues to see this pattern as a triangle, which has either taken the form of a symmetrical triangle or an ending diagonal.  The pivot between those two options is 1887. 

Here's a more detailed look at the potential symmetrical triangle, using the NYSE Composite (NYA):

SPX reached the key 1885-87 pivot yesterday, but in the event it sustains trade north of 1887, then the symmetrical triangle is in play.  Interestingly, the textbook target for the symmetrical triangle also represents a long-term resistance zone.

I think one of the goals of trading ranges is to wear everyone out -- and in doing so, ranges sometimes serve the function of making traders a bit sloppy afterwards.  While the range is underway, everyone becomes hyper-focused on the near-term charts; then some feel thrilled or relieved when the range finally breaks.  Trend followers sometimes even become strangely complacent afterwards, due to the emotional release of stored tension that was generated by the range.

But I'd suggest we stay alert even if there's a sustained breakout over the 1887 pivot, because we have resistance showing up on the long-term chart, right near the symmetrical triangle's target zone:

So, put simply, the preferred count currently still anticipates that the new highs will turn into a head-fake and whipsaw -- but let's talk about the more bullish option as well.

Prior to the development of the apparent triangle trading range, I had been viewing the bull potential as wave i-up of v-up complete, with the correction as ii-down of v-up (now also complete), and iii-up of v-up still to come.  The series of apparent three-wave moves which created the trading range gradually drew me away from that wave count.  At the moment, I'm no longer favoring it -- but because three-wave moves aren't always what they seem, my original bull count isn't dead and I still have to continue to respect as a viable option.  That option will likely regain favor as the preferred count if the market sustains trade north of 1914. 

In conclusion, the preferred triangle count accurately predicted the end of the trading range and the immediate new highs, which gives some additional credence to that count.  Of course, we don't want to get too far ahead of the market or too rigid in our expectations, but the pivots continue to bear watching as potentially-important reversal zones.  For the time being, I'm continuing to favor the view that the anticipated new highs are part of a terminal pattern.  Trade safe.

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SPX and USB: Equities May Be Plotting a Head-Fake Whipsaw

On Friday, I mentioned that I believe the market is finally close to breaking out of the month-long trading range, and after studying the charts further this weekend, I increasingly believe that break will happen over the next few sessions.

I've done things a little differently today, because the chop zone of the past month has left open at least four fully-valid near-term wave patterns -- and trying to talk about four different options would simply confuse most readers.  So instead of doing that, I've simplified the S&P 500 (SPX) chart down to the key price pivot zones, and the next targets if those zones are broken.

I suspect the market is setting up for a whipsaw head-fake break from this range, so watch carefully for the first directional range break to reverse near the pivots.  I'll discuss this in more detail after the chart.

While calling direction from the middle of the range in a choppy market like this is virtually impossible, if I had to pick a direction here, I'd say we rally first to run the bear stops, then reverse.

Let's talk about where these price pivots come from, why those pivot levels could mark reversal zones, and thus why (ironically) bulls probably want to see SPX head directly lower, while bears probably want to see it head directly higher. 

Disclaimer: If you're easily confused and/or have a short attention span, you might want to skip the next four paragraphs.  I've noted where to pick up again.

If SPX heads directly higher, there are two wave counts that remain in play -- and both have intermediate bearish potential and hint at a reversal to follow.  The basic issue for bulls is that an immediate rally would suggest that the three-wave structures of the past month have been part of a triangle.  That triangle has two possible forms:

1.  The most bearish is the potential ending diagonal rally (discussed last week), which is invalidated north of 1887.  Ending diagonals (as the name implies) are terminal patterns.
2.  The second option (a standard triangle) is more near-term bullish, but bearish on an intermediate basis.  Triangles most often occur as the penultimate wave in a pattern.  The thrust out of Elliott Wave triangles is generally strong and fast -- and then reverses nearly as quickly.

So (as noted last week) I think bears want to see prices head directly higher from here, and then watch for whipsaws starting at either 1885-87 or 1900-1910.  Both price zones have the potential to mark intermediate turn zones.  There are, of course, also more bullish options that would remain in play on a breakout, and those come to the fore if SPX can sustain trade north of 1910 +/-. 

As I discussed a week ago, the problem for bears is that the three-wave rally into the all-time high strongly suggests that the final high isn't in yet.  So, in the event of an immediate break lower, the first option for bulls is for an ending diagonal C-wave down.  That pattern is invalidated below 1832.82 (hence the 1833 pivot), which, probably not coincidentally, lines up nicely with the 50 day moving average at 1834.

NOTE:  Fed governors start reading again here.

If SPX sustains trade south of 1832.82, then a host of bearish potentials open up.  So, even though bulls have the three-wave rally into the highs in their back pockets, I would not want to be long south of 1832.  The potential for drawdown beneath 1832 is significant.  As an extreme example: the 2011 mini-crash came on the back of a three-wave rally into the 2011 high -- and while the market ultimately recovered and exceeded that high, there was much more money to be made on the short side for several months.

Conversely, in the event of an immediate rally, do keep in mind that this is a bull market; which means bears should choose their entries and exits selectively and cautiously, and not stubbornly fight the tape.  The wave iii of v count discussed at length during March is still alive and well.

Recently, I've had a few readers request updates on bonds, and there's really very little to add since my last bond update of February 20.  Near-term, the 30-year bond (USB) may still be working on wave B/(2).  Ultimately, I still expect prices to test 138, though bullish bond bets are off below the key overlap.

A chart that bears watching is the ratio of high yield corporate bonds to Treasury bonds (HYG:TLT), which has broken its up-sloping channel for the first time in nearly two years.  The bond charts may be warning that there's trouble on the horizon for equities, but as yet there have been no definitive red alerts here, only hints and allegations.

In conclusion, while SPX is still within the trading range, I'm anticipating it will break from this range in short order.  I further suspect that the first break will be upwards, but would stay very cautious for a head-fake and whipsaw shortly thereafter.  The market, of course, reserves the right to do something else entirely -- so the key levels should help point the way.  Trade safe.

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SPX, NYA, and QE Updates: Distribution or Consolidation?

I'm a firm believer that the recent bull market has been driven largely by money-printing from world's central banks, and specifically by the Fed's quantitative easing programs.  I've given verbose arguments in this regard many times, but the short summary of the argument is that the printing press creates liquidity, and liquidity drives the market.

Let's look at a chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), since a picture is currently worth 18,967 words (remember back in the 80's, when you could buy a picture for a thousand words?  Yet another example of inflation.)  The chart below highlights some of the central bank programs which seem to have been intimately linked to the five-year bull market.

I originally published this chart back in November 2012, as part of (what was then) my long-term bull argument for equities.  The question now is: What happens in the coming days, as the Fed tapers the QE program?  Based on prior history, we can assume that as Fed money-pumping slows, so will the market.  But I think we also have to look a step further and ask:  If/when the shrinking liquidity pool hits the tipping point and the market reacts negatively, what will the Fed then do in response?  I mention this because a lot of bears are looking forward to the end of QE, and the presumed resumption of a "natural" market -- but the Fed can, of course, always reverse policy again if it doesn't like the results.

When we look at current charts, we can see SPX has been in a trading range (or "chop zone") since February.  The challenge is that near-term chop zones can turn the charts into the equivalent of a Rorschach ink blot test:  Bulls see bullish patterns, bears see bearish patterns, dogs see patterns that look like bacon, Cookie Monster sees cookies, etc.

This is one reason I would strongly caution against reading too much into the classic technical patterns that seem to materialize within a trading range -- and especially caution against trying to ride them to their classically-expected price targets.  Trading ranges do funny things, and the main success I've ever had with them comes in identifying them early enough, then selling the high end of the range and buying the low end.  That works until it doesn't, at which point your profits should trump the money you lose when the pattern finally breaks and you're stopped out.

Due to the near-term chop zone and the myopia it induces, I want to look at a broader view of SPX.  I'm not going to republish the 30-minute SPX chart in this update because there's been no material change therein, so please refer to prior updates if you missed it.

Not shown on the chart above:  The 50 day moving average on SPX currently crosses 1834.  In the event of a breakdown, that zone is worth watching simply because other traders pay attention to it -- and in a bull market, that means there are often standing buy orders near the 50 DMA.

A couple other charts not shown in today's update that bear honorable mention:

1.  Nasdaq's volume declining has spiked to the highest levels since October 2012.  It's not unusual for volume declining spikes to indicate an approaching bottom.
2.  The Dow Transports (TRAN) invalidated the bullish triangle count.  The first meaningful resistance zone in TRAN is now 7480 +/-.


Next I want to look at the NYSE Composite (NYA) because, of all the chop zone charts, this one may have the cleanest wave structure.  The red trend lines are where nimble traders might play, but we still have to respect the larger range.

In conclusion, SPX and NYA are both near the lower end of the trading range.  Due to the larger trend, this is probably bears' last shot to break these markets down, so any strong bounces from here would likely lead to new highs.  In the event of a sustained breakdown of the 1834 zone, then SPX's pattern could be seen as a double-top, which suggests a textbook target south of 1800.  Trade safe.

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