Back in January of '09, when the market was 25% higher, I predicted the market would move down to the 670-680 area, and then reverse from that level.
The first post is from all the way back on January 15, and I discuss my (preliminary) 680 target, in reference to my friend's comment about Citibank (C).
The second post is from March 4, and shows how I was still expecting the wave down to complete in the 670-680 zone.
The final post is from after the market closed on March 6, in which I reiterated the call I'd been making since January.
To really understand the historical challenge here, you have to realize that back in January, most thought that the bottom was already in or very close... then by March, virtually everyone thought the world was ending, and that the market would never stop declining. The fear was unbelievable, and the AAII sentiment was over 70% bears. Even I was worried enough to only take a small long position (a handful of ES contracts, if memory serves) initially. To be completely fair, I wasn't immediately sure how significant that bottom would be: before we even bottomed, my initial projection was for a 20% rally off the 670-680 level.
A day or so later, after I saw more confirmation of a bottom, I added a large SPX call position which netted over 1000% return in a very short time.
And just like always, there was no guarantee... but the charts were suggesting "bottom" months before we even got there. As it turned out, the market perfectly followed the blue line on the real-time projection chart I posted: it dipped below the falling wedge (it wasn't a true diagonal, just took the shape of one) and reversed at 666. So I can say, quite literally, that I called the exact bottom -- in real time -- within one point.
Due to waiting for the wedge/diagonal structure to confirm a bit, however, I missed my entry on the exact bottom by 5 points and change. :)
A cool read. I can see how you called the short term bottom. It worked well for you with your method of compounding short term trades. I wonder, would a swing trader have recognised this as the time to cover? Did you see this as the bottom at a lager degree as well?
ReplyDeleteI thought the chart made it obvious I was looking for more than a day-trade bounce (as well as the ending diagonal fifth wave comment), as well as the comment at the end where I was telling the guy it was more than a "brief short covering rally." :(
ReplyDeleteI guess it's not the same without the context of my many months of comments about that 660-680 level...
I should dig up more stuff, but it takes so friggin' long. I predicted the move down to that level -- AND that the market would reverse there -- all the way back in January of that year, when the SPX was 25% higher.
Very impressive stuff.
ReplyDelete-B.O.B.
No worries Pretzel. I was off-base in looking at this post through the eyes of someone accustomed to the detail in your current blog. You could say you have spoiled me.
ReplyDeleteIt was a good call, seeing the market bottom of 09. Well done. It is going to be fun hitting those turn going forward.