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Tuesday, February 18, 2025

SPX Update: Welcome to Wherever You Are

Since last update, SPX made a new high, completing the warning from February 12 that bears would be in trouble if that morning's gap down ended up being bought back up.  This puts the market in an interesting position, with 3 main options, two of which are bullish, one of which is rather bearish.  

Let's see what I mean, starting with the near-term SPX chart:



So, to summarize the above:

1.  We have the most straightforward pattern (bull nest, big rally toward ~6300).
2.  We have "the market hates everyone, especially you" pattern (an increasingly complex flat back to blue, then up to another new all-time high).  I hate that these exist, because we always have to be aware of them as a possibility, which just convolutes everything.
3.  Then we have the "oh my, that got ugly fast" ending diagonal, which is covered in more detail below:



In conclusion, we have the main bases covered now, so it's just a matter of watching how the market responds, to add weight to which pattern is likely unfolding.  Trade safe.

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