Not much new since last update, but I did want to revisit a statement I made back on January 3, because I sometimes convey things maybe a bit too subtly. The statement I'm referring to specifically was the comment "for now, we'll give that lower weight." What preceded that was a discussion of the bear options
as the (implicit) "higher weight" value. In other words, I've been suspecting that we've already seen an "
end to the bull run for now, or even of the entire bull market." That's the assumption I'm currently operating from, but I wanted to reiterate that, in case it wasn't clear from the comment I made on Jan. 3:
Beyond that, nothing to add to the SPX chart. I still tend to suspect we're headed for a break of the prior low and hence the 5500s. If bulls wanted to annoy everyone, they would create another wave up here, possibly as part of an ending diagonal c-wave higher (with i of c already completed, and ii of c the decline since).
Finally, COMPQ is also unchanged:
In conclusion, if bulls were going to pull out an upset, they're probably running out of real estate in which to do so. As noted on the NYA chart, that can't be ruled out yet, but it does appear to be the underdog. Trade safe.
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