SPX Update: Targets Captured, and Caveats

Last two updates warned that there could be a fourth wave down about to unfold, and the market since made good on that, reaching (and exceeding) both its downside targets.

From a near-term perspective, things get a little tricky here.  I expected this decline to be wave c of an expanded flat, because I suspect the all-time high is a b-wave -- so I expected this to be an impulse down.  Which it is.  But that means if the high is NOT a b-wave, we have, you know, an impulse down.  Which would mean the correction would need another impulse down, if my read of the high is off.

In conclusion, the market behaved as expected, but since I can't be 100% sure of anything, including my own existence, the impulse hanging there on the chart makes it a tougher call.  So:  In the event we see a three-wave rally and a reversal, then we should be guarded.  If the high is indeed a b-wave, then the market would rally to new highs from here (technically, it could support one more small wave down, but that looks less likely -- I mention it to make readers aware that this count remains unscathed if there is another small wave down).  Trade safe.