SPX Update: Bullish Sentiment, by One Metric, Hits All-Time Highs

Since last update, SPX confirmed the downside inflection zone and its pattern provides some guidance for the near-term going forward:

Before we revisit the big picture chart, I want to discuss a couple of interesting sentiment indicators.  First up, investors are currently insanely bullish.  This is traditionally not a bullish signal, the thinking being that people act on their beliefs.  When people are bullish, it usually means they've already acted on that and bought stocks.  When "everyone" is bullish, then the implication is that "everyone" has already bought -- which would mean the market is running out of fresh buyers to keep driving prices higher.

The percentage of people who think stocks will go higher over the next 12 months just hit an all-time record high, going back to 1987:

Next, insiders are selling at record numbers.  This is a weaker indicator, because we can see by the high bars in red that insiders don't have a great track record of picking tops and often sales volume peaks months or even years before the market does.  But, in context of everything else, it's interesting, nonetheless.

I bring these indicators up because they seem to provide at least some degree of fundamental support to the long-term SPX chart:

Of course, the Fed seems hell-bent on cutting rates again and possibly reigniting inflation, so we'll see how that goes, but for now, all this is worth watching.  Trade safe.