SPX and COMPQ: Interesting Things

Since last update, SPX declined, but bulls held the level they needed to hold (so far) and SPX remained range-bound.  Eagle-eyed readers probably spotted the triangle I drew (in red) in the last update -- and while SPX went a hair below the speculative line I'd drawn, it's still within a range that makes a triangle possible.  The chart discusses this further (annotation in red):

The triangle could also serve to draw things out through this week; to culminate next week in the potential "Santa Rally" I mentioned a couple weeks back.

COMPQ bears a similar motif, where another high would potentially complete a wave at some degree, and hence be followed by a correction (or worse):

I'm also going to reprint the old "extended fifth" target SPX chart, because it's relevant to the discussion that follows:

In conclusion, both SPX and COMPQ presently still appear slightly more likely to need another high, but be aware that if 6029 fails significantly, it could signal earlier problems for bulls.  

It's interesting that things do seem to have aligned to where both markets could complete a larger wave with one more high, and thus could both fall into a larger correction afterwards.  The only dark spot on this outlook is that SPX might then fall short of its longer-term "extended fifth wave" target in this scenario.  But there are ways for SPX to get around that, such as with the "one more high" it appears to need ending up extending itself and blowing past the targets... or with another new high completing a smaller degree fifth wave and leading to a decent fourth wave correction that ultimately later resolves with another new high of its own.  So, we'll have to play it by ear a bit if the first portions of this thesis play out and adjust as well as we can in real-time.  Trade safe.