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Friday, November 8, 2024

SPX, COMPQ, TLT: Powell's Well That Ends... Well?

The Fed did its thing yesterday and cut interest rates by another 25 bps.  Jerome Powell then did his press conference, and his eyes burned with defiance as he angrily stated that he wants everyone (and he means everyone) to know that he can't be fired, no matter what he does:



Powell then flipped off the press corps, spit on the stage, and broke into a seemingly impromptu and horribly off-key rendition of Frank Sinatra's "My Way."  Before leaving, he announced that the next press conference would be held underwater.  In Antarctica.  

That was good enough for the market, which continued rallying as it has since the election results were announced.  SPX managed to reach and exceed its next target:


I really don't know how much more upside remains in SPX, if any, but IF it continues to push past its target zone, then I'll continue to watch that crazy extended fifth target from March.  Anything seems possible right now, with the market behaving a bit crazy itself, but I'm also watching for any impulsive declines that might put a damper on things. 


COMPQ is still around, but there's nothing to add to the prior update (except it did confirm the b-wave high):


Finally, this seemed like a good time to update the long-running TLT chart.  I think I've been using this same chart for around a decade, though the very old annotations had to be booted along the way to make room for new annotations:


In conclusion, SPX reached its next target, so we'll see if it takes a breather or not.  TLT doesn't seem interested in Powell's rate cuts, and the Fed probably doesn't want to lose complete control of long-term interest rates, as a sustained decoupling could spell trouble for multiple asset classes and for the national debt.

The market assumes Trump will be good for the economy, but the question in my mind is whether that will be enough.  America has created quite a few problems for itself, such as the problem that much of the "positive GDP growth" we had over the past few years was funded in large part by government debt, further contributing to the ever-expanding wall of debt we're now facing.  Add to that the fact that the Fed may, sooner or later, again need to start "monetizing" that debt.  And if interest rates don't play along with the Fed's cuts, then the interest on the national debt will continue to skyrocket, and problems will multiply.  Anyway, I'm not sure a good economy can take root in this bloated environment without a reckoning first.  But there are just too many undefined variables right now to determine that with much confidence.  Trade safe.

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