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Monday, November 11, 2024

SPX and COMPQ: Maybe, I Guess

Nothing much happened since last update, so -- barring an impulsive decline in the meantime -- we'll continue watching that potential SPX target from March:


And we'll keep watching COMPQ:


The question a lot of people seem to have is:  Does the election of Trump change anything?

Maybe.  The question I have is whether the seeds that have already been sown can be overcome by anyone at this point.





The problem is a good chunk of our GDP over the last few years has come directly from new government debt.  And the Treasury market is so far not playing along with the Fed's rate cuts, which means: one, that the market doesn't think inflation has abated enough and two, the cost of servicing that debt may remain high.  And while I suppose if GDP were to really boom, it would help that last chart -- all this is really just the tip of the iceberg, as far as America's problems go.  Is the election of a new President enough to solve all our problems?  Maybe, I guess.  But maybe not.  

So, I'll leave it at that for now.  We can come up with more bullish long-term counts if it seems appropriate.  Trade safe.

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