SPX, INDU Updates: 50 bps Cut from the Fed Would Not Be Bullish, Historically

SPX and INDU finally made new all-time highs, so let's get right into the charts to examine the implications, starting with the near-term INDU chart:

INDU's long-term chart shows overhead resistance not far away:

SPX seems to have squeaked out a new high, which is all it needed, but ideally it would look better if it could run up into the target zone from August 19 (which, incidentally, would probably line up pretty well with INDU's overhead trend line):

And of course, today is a Fed Day.  Or a "Fedday" if you hate the Fed.  Bulls are hoping for a 50 bps cut, but Lord only know why.  50 bps cuts for the first cut after a rate hike cycle are not typically bullish -- at least, not over the next 4 years, anyway.  (This is because the larger cut implies the Fed realizes it overshot and is now rushing to catch up to the looming recession.)

Incidentally, I'm going to call it now, so there's no question later:  The next President will inherit a recession.

In conclusion, the double "only three down so far" calls (from early August and then again for the last smaller decline) have both proved out.  Bigger picture, the market is getting into a major inflection zone, so let's see how it reacts.  Trade safe.