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Wednesday, July 17, 2024

SPX, COMPQ, INDU Updates

SPX hasn't really gone anywhere (except sideways) since last update, so we still have a situation where:

  1. On the one hand, there are potentially enough waves up for a decent correction to begin from here.
  2. On the other hand, the various indices all seem to be doing their own thing, so one can see whatever one wants to, based on which market they pick and their preexisting bias.
This lack of agreement between markets continues to make me uncomfortable from an analytical standpoint.  A look at the following three charts may help shed more light on why, starting with INDU:



Next, COMPQ:



Finally, a near-term chart of SPX:


We can see that INDU is flirting with a price point (not quite there yet, but close) where it would tend to imply the rally continues over the long run, though it does allow for a sizeable correction in the meantime.  COMPQ hasn't made a new high above the 5 label, but it's still unclear if it needs another 4/5 unwind.  Even SPX at a near-term level is about as clear as coffee.

So, at this point, I'll simply remind readers that we've had a solid handle on the market here for multiple months now -- but, as the famous Kenny Rogers song says, "You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em," etc.  Sometimes we just have to wait the market out for a minute, since the market (collectively) isn't behaving in a way that makes bold calls appropriate just yet, in my opinion.  Trade safe.  

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