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Friday, July 12, 2024

SPX and COMPQ and NYA and INDU and...

In the prior update, I was leaning toward SPX and COMPQ still needing another high, which they both got.  Yay.  To boot, they then both reversed exactly as they should have, since that wave was expected to be a micro 5th wave to complete a larger wave.  Yay.  Again.

But then we have NYA and INDU and BKX (et al), which all rallied yesterday.  Normally, I like to see something approaching agreement between markets, especially near turn zones.  Because when every market is instead doing its own thing, it starts to feel more like a box full of agitated cats, and it makes me uncomfortable, like trying to sit on a bean bag chair filled with olive oil while dressed in a tuxedo and holding a box full of agitated cats.  In other words, it's hard for bears to declare any sort of confident victory just yet.  

Of course, all that could change tomorrow or Monday, if INDU and NYA were suddenly to reverse dramatically.  But that hasn't happened yet -- or, as Kamala Harris would say:  “So I think it’s very important... for us, at every moment in time, and certainly this one, to see the moment in time in which we exist and are present, and to be able to contextualize it, to understand where we exist in the history and in the moment as it relates not only to the past, but the future.”  

(I really wanted to use the altered quote there, because it's funnier, but she didn't actually say: “Today is today. And yesterday was today yesterday. Tomorrow will be today tomorrow. So live today, so the future today will be as the past today as it is tomorrow.”  No matter; the actual quote will suffice.)

Anyway, the point is, if I remember correctly, that there's not much agreement between markets right now, so bears might want to stay on their toes.

Below, we can see COMPQ did exactly what it was supposed to:



As did SPX:



But then we have INDU:



And NYA:


Put 'em together and what have you got?  Bibbidi-bobbidi-boo.  Which, in this case, actually appears to be roughly correct.  

So, in conclusion, this COULD be the start of a meaningful turn... but the lack of agreement between markets, at least "at this moment in time in which we exist and are present," fails to inspire confidence so far.  Accordingly, I'm going to pause a moment and wait to see what NYA and INDU, etc., do next before slapping numbers and projections on these charts.  Trade safe.

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