Last update concluded:
[I]f SPX rolls over here, the first zone to watch is 3865-98 (which would be one area a complex fourth wave could bottom), but it is into a zone where I can no longer promise continued upside. I think it would probably look a bit better with more upside, but it doesn't appear to be "guaranteed" the way it did over the recent past -- thus we'll be watching closely in the event it forms an impulsive decline.
And there's been no real change to that. It is interesting that this apparent inflection arrived when it did, since today we have a number of potential market-movers:
- Powell speech
- Pending home sales
- Oil inventories
- JOLTS
- PMI
- FOMC Beige Book
- GDP
- ADP
I think my idealized scenario would involve some whipsaws before it really gets rolling, but we are into the blue 2 inflection zone -- and it's not supposed to be easy here:
In conclusion, I think it's wise for bulls to remain on alert right now, because, as I noted last update, there is the possibility for ALL OF blue 2 to finally be complete, or nearly so. Trade safe.
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