SPX and COMPQ: Back to the Drawing Board

Been a while since I had to eat crow, so I had forgotten how bitter it tastes, and for the first time in a long time, I feel that old bearish urge to complain about the disconnect between the market and the real economy, about Fed funny money, and about, well, just general late-stage-republic nonsense. 

But I'm always preaching about how the market is what it is, so I'll attempt to refrain from all that and simply say that the bear count I was leaning into has officially been kicked out with the new all-time high, so the preferred count was a bust this time around.

It turns out that those long-term trend lines, which we talked about a few times, were apparently all the market was aiming for.

COMPQ:

Same thing with the chart we previously looked at for TRAN.  Obviously, were the market to return back to that line anytime soon and sustain a breakdown, then maybe bears would be back in business.

Near-term, there's some temptation to try to count this as a triangle, due to the overlapping mess in the middle, but it would need to be a running triangle if it were to be a triangle at all, and running triangle is one of the patterns I try to avoid using unless absolutely necessary.

In conclusion, bulls have killed the bear 1-2 count, but bears do still have the option for a more complex flat.  If this is the most bullish count (blue), then bears will have to wait on the back burner for at least a little while.  Bigger picture, presuming this breakout sticks, we are again going to be back to wondering if the market gets its extended fifth wave after all.  Trade safe.