On August 25, I wrote:
Wave iv (not its real name) could, of course, become even more complex -- but that may have been enough chop for now. A sustained breakout over black likely gets us to at least 4530-50, possibly much higher if 5 chooses to extend.
And, after the prescribed breakout over black, that target was captured on Monday, with SPX tagging ~4537. This has left SPX in an interesting position:
(Note: Typo -- should read "4480-4495"! Not "4480-4995," for crying out loud.)
Bigger picture, we may finally be getting close to learning if this wave wants to extend or not:
NYA still hasn't managed a breakout over the first red line, so that's relevant for now:
In conclusion, the "standard" fifth target zone of June 7 (4480-4550) has been almost fully captured now, placing SPX at a decision point (see first chart). While a whipsaw of black wouldn't be the end of the world for bulls (see smaller subdividing bull 1 of iii of (v) option), it could be a warning of more bearish things to come, and thus harder to trade -- accordingly, bulls would like to see this back test of black hold for the near-term.
On an unrelated note, this year marks the 20th anniversary of 9/11, and I can highly recommend National Geographic's new 9/11: One Day in America miniseries. My wife and I have almost finished watching the series, and it does justice to the great men and women who suffered through that tragic day.
Trade safe.
i dont understand why we keep trying to guess this "market" and putting labels on it anymore. There is no way in hell we'll ever see another 10% decline, ever! Risk? what risk! ha!
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