SPX Update: Very Long Term Chart Spills the Beans

SPX bounced right at Friday's black "bull iv" label, but appears to have turned into a more complex flat, so we could see further whipping and sawing here.  The upper black trend line remains the zone where bulls would need to sustain a breakout to help eliminate that:

When I publish very long term (VLT) charts, I tend to use log scale -- but it does pay to look at charts in linear scale every now and then.  This, I suspect, is one of those times.

(Note:  To bring up the full-size chart, simply right click on the chart and "Open in New Window")

To me, having watched extended fifths at multiple time frames over decades, the geometry of the above chart pretty much says it all:  This has become unsustainable.

But let's remember that "unsustainable" doesn't necessarily mean "over yet."  One of the curses of being ahead of the curve is that it requires patience to wait for "the majority" (the broad market) to catch up.  After all, if everyone saw what you see when you see it, then you'd never be ahead of the crowd in the first place. 

The question now is whether the final wave of the final wave will extend again, as it quite often does during extended fifths, forming the proverbial "blow off top."

In conclusion, there are enough waves for a completed correction if the market wants, but I suspect the current correction may grow more complex, and thus we could see more chop before it's all over.  That's not guaranteed, of course, as predicting complex corrections is far from an exact science -- so in the event it instead continues to rally, then we would watch the upper black trend line (on the near-term chart) as a potential upside pivot.  Trade safe.