Last update didn't have much to add to the past few, except to note SPX was testing a near-term trend line... on Friday, it cleared that line and ran to the top of its newly-formed channel (in blue), where it appears to be meeting at least temporary resistance (per futures):
Big picture, SPX is now decidedly over the very long-term red trend line:
Interestingly, COMPQ has been lagging this rally, and has yet to clear its ATH:
In conclusion, there's still not much to add, though COMPQ means there's at least something of an inflection zone nearby, as it's hard to see the broader market rallying if COMPQ reacts strongly to the symmetry of its rally off the March low. Do note there is no guarantee COMPQ will react, though, which is why we call it an inflection -- it's one possible future, not set in stone. Trade safe.
When you have to scratch your head, throw up your hands, and accept a run away market at the height of great earnings comparisons from last year sit back and enjoy the show. Buffett indicators literally off the chart. Market value to GDP at 233% with anticipation of a 6 plus GDP move soon. Valuations are so absurd that a post pandemic will only add helium to the balloon. Witnessing the greatest blow off event since great depression & expect this one to exceed all modern day comparisons.
ReplyDeleteCPI jumped at an 8.5 year high. Powell on 60 minutes assured all we are in the goldilocks scenario. Spike inflation started & will accelerate in post pandemic frenzy. FED sit on hands while market sobers up. Expect giddy earnings news to wipe out all else for now. Housing, blowups from speculative bets, treasury yields, even the dollar will all adjust in a shockingly short span. Crash setup? Not yet. Q's finally making run to catch up with rest.
ReplyDelete