SPX Update

Last update noted:

Futures... are suggesting a down open for the market.  But I wouldn't be terribly surprised if that goes nowhere (except back up toward the top of the recent range)

And that's what happened.  The market gapped down, but that decline stalled immediately, and went nowhere, except back up.  Bulls are now trying to break from the most recent chop zone, but have yet to make a clean break.  Their attempt yesterday found resistance at the red trend line.

This remains a very difficult fractal to predict, because I'm still not certain what the market is trying to accomplish here, and the last couple weeks have been anything but enlightening.

Accordingly, I will continue to warn bears that, until we see an impulsive decline, there's nothing to get excited about.  If this wave wants to turn into an impulse, then it can keep moving higher.  If it's only an ABC, then it could be close to completion, but it's better to await an impulsive decline for confirmation.  Even in that scenario, there's typically a rough retest of the high afterwards.  Until then, the near-term trend remains up.  Trade safe.