Last update noted the potential that we could reverse back down to break the prior low for a more complex wave iv, and SPX has been on a relentless, though subdued, decline ever since. Thus the more complex iv is obviously still on the table. Complicating matters, though, is that because the last rally did make a new all-time high, it is entirely possible that ALL OF 5 is complete, meaning the whole rally would be over, and we wouldn't see new highs for a while.
It's still rather unclear what SPX's intentions are at the moment, which is a change from the past few months when things have been crystal-clear. I've drawn up an NDX chart that may help act as a canary (next chart):
NDX does have a couple more options beyond what I've shown, but this is probably the best we can do at the moment to help add clarity:
In conclusion, the double-retrace option (second red "iv?" on SPX) looks pretty viable at the moment, and we'll just have to play it by ear into the next couple sessions. Trade safe.
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