Yesterday saw the first signs in a while that bears haven't all died and gone to Yellowstone. As of yet, we don't quite have an impulsive decline in SPX, though. And even if we get one, we won't immediately be able to rule it out as wave C of an expanded flat -- but a breakdown at the key level noted below (2458) would certainly call for bull caution. And it might even give bears the encouragement to take a crack against the ATH on any decent subsequent bounce. If yesterday's low holds, then we have no impulsive decline and simply have an ABC down, of course, in which case SPX would likely hit the target zone next:
NDX, on the other hand, DOES look like an impulsive decline. I can't entirely rule out an impulsive c-wave for a flat, but either way, I have to give bears the near-term edge here as long as 5996 high holds.
In conclusion, it's always possible bulls will pull out a stick save -- but we're finally seeing some signals that suggest that at least the near-term power may have shifted, or be about to shift, back to the bears. Trade safe.
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