I came down with a nasty head-cold over the weekend (possibly due to the rapid changes in the market's altitude! (rimshot)), so I'm going to let the charts do most of the talking today. First off, INDU is attempting to sustain a breakout over its recent noise zone; if that breakout holds, then it will be on track for the next long-term upside target zones. (We'll look at the near-term picture after this.)
Near-term, the diagonal appears to be the first line in the sand, but careful of whipsaws and head-fakes if we do back-test it -- sometimes markets get ugly around such zones:
SPX is in a similar position to INDU:
I'm still holding out hope that my first instinct in NDX (back when we were near the bottom) was correct. If so, the rally should be nearing completion. If not, then it will just keep going, of course.
In conclusion, it's going to be hard for bears over the immediate future, because SPX and INDU are both in patterns where the bears' best NEAR-TERM hopes are for a counter-trend decline in an unpredictable expanded flat. Thus I wouldn't advise trying anything too bearish unless we see an impulsive reversal in those indices. Bears can still hold out some hope for NDX -- for the moment, anyway -- but do be careful if it sustains a breakout over the prior highs. Trade safe.
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